31 Ocak 2015 Cumartesi

Arnsdorf Jeans, Size 30 AU (28/6 US)




Great slim jeans from indie Aussie label Arnsdorf. High rise, tapered leg, khaki color with golden brown stitching. 96% cotton, 4% elastane, super comfortable and flattering fit (last photo shows fit, but is of a different color). Made in Australia. Excellent condition, I just can't wear jeans most days and these don't get enough wear.

Size: labeled a 30, but fits like a 28 or a 6. Laying flat, measures 15" across the waist, 5.5" across the leg opening. 28" inseam, 10" rise, 38" in total length.

Paid: $100 on sale? Asking: $50 + $5 shipping in the US.

Listing ends: February 7.

Leave any questions in the comments section, thanks!

Inhabit Cashmere Sweater, Size Small


Nice red cashmere sweater from Inhabit. Wide neck, oversized fit. Great condition, worn a few times. Just doesn't see enough wear in my closet.

Size: Small. Measures 21.5" wide, 27" long.

Paid: $175 on sale -- retailed for $350. 

Asking: $55 + $5 shipping in the US.

Listing ends: February 7. 

Flattery? The Fake Chinese Land Rover Evoque

If the man on the street can't tell the difference, why not pay less than a third for the fake?
The previous post on Chinese authorities "cracking down" on Alibaba for allegedly being lenient towards intellectual property violators jogged my memory about this post I planned to write but forgot somewhere down the line. The Land Rover Evoque has been a hit sports-utility vehicle (SUV) the world over with its stylish appearance and the prestigious Land Rover badge--including in China. It was probably only a matter of time, then, that someone thought of making a nearly-indistiguishable copy. In the image above, which is the real Evoque and which is the fake? (It's the one below.)

If imitation is the sincerest form of flattery, the Chinese are very sincere indeed. Anyway, on to the story:
Land Rover is weighing up its options in regards to the new Landwind X7 SUV, which appears to be a very close copy of the Range Rover Evoque, one of Land Rover's best-selling models. The Landwind X7 had its global debut at the 2014 Guangzhou Auto Show last week and Land Rover's most senior employee, CEO Ralph Speth, is none too pleased. "The fact that this kind of copying is ongoing in China is very disappointing," Land Rover's CEO told UK-based Autocar.

Although it's unlikely much will be achieved within China, where the Landwind X7 is now on sale for about one third the price of a Chinese-built Evoque, Speth is not going down without a fight to protect the company's intellectual property (IP). "The simple principle is that it is not something that should happen; the intellectual property is owned by Jaguar Land Rover, and if you break that IP then you are in breach of international regulations that apply around the world," stated Speth.
The funny thing is, there are no real remedial actions Jaguar-Land Rover (JLR) can take in present-day China to contest their intellectual property rights. Where is the State Administration for Industry and Commerce (SAIC) in this case? An oddity is that JLR has a deal with Chinese automaker Chery to build copies there. Would Chery be better able to enforce JLR's IP rights? If not, JLR's best hope may be to limit export sales of the knock-offs absent any real action it can take in the PRC:
Legal action is unlikely, and virtually impossible within China, as most major companies are have partial government-ownership. The best Land Rover can hope for is that the vehicle is not exported to one of the Evoque's major markets.

The plot looks set to thicken however, as Land Rover has formed an alliance with Chery Automobile in China, which means the Range Rover Evoque is also built on the Chinese mainland by said company. Essentially, Chinese motorists can choose to buy the Landwind X7 for around $A23,000 (120,000 yuan), or the Range Rover Evoque for roughly $A76,000 (400,000 yuan), both of which look virtually identical "I will talk to our officials and I will talk to our partners at Chery to find a way around this situation," the Land Rover CEO said in relation to both cars being offered in China.
Lip service aside, I do not think the Chinese are making any strides in enforcing intellectual property at all. Sure the PRC can bash Alibaba for political reasons, but I do not really think this represents a crackdown on fakes given the ready availability of knock-off cars and virtually everything else on the streets of major cities.  

Diving Into the GDP Report - Some Ominous Trends - Yellen Yap - Decoupling or Not?

Yellen Yap

On Thursday, Fed Chair Janet Yellen met with Senate Democrats at a private luncheon. She told the Democrats that the U.S. Economy is Strong.

My first thought was "what the heck is Yellen doing holding a private lunch with Democrats only?" Had she met with Senate Republicans, I would have asked the same question.

Apparently this is common procedure for Yellen, so perhaps I am reading too much into it.

Yet, I cannot help wondering if the real purpose of the meeting was to persuade Democrats to block any "Audit the Fed" Initiatives.

Glowing Report

Regardless of the reason, Yellen had some pretty glowing things to say.

“She went through the issues of unemployment and inflation. Very positive. And economic growth numbers were good, have been good. There’s work to be done,” Sen. Richard Durbin (D-Ill.) said after the luncheon.

No Rate Hike Soon

Bloomberg reported Yellen Tells Senators No Rate Rise Soon Amid Concerns Abroad.
“Her message is that the economy’s getting better but there’s still a ways to go in terms of job creation,” New York Senator Charles Schumer said today in an interview on Capitol Hill. “That worry seems, in her mind, to be paramount and that’s why she is not going to raise rates immediately.”

The Fed upgraded its assessment of the U.S. economy in a statement on Wednesday after a meeting of its policy-setting committee, while adding a reference to “international developments” which investors took as a sign of mounting worry about weakness overseas.

Yellen shared “some concern about the foreign situation,” said Virginia Senator Tim Kaine, who said her comments were “pretty positive about the fundamentals here.”

Economists said the confident tone of the statement from the Federal Open Market Committee signals it is on track to raise interest rates this year, while making the point it is not ignoring the weaker performance of the global economy.
GDP Expectations Fall Short

On Friday 4th quarter GDP estimates came in below economist expectations. Bloomberg reported "The advance estimate for fourth quarter GDP growth disappointed with a 2.6 percent figure versus analysts' estimate of 3.2 percent and following 5.0 percent for the third quarter. Final sales of domestic product slowed to 1.8 percent, following a 5.0 percent jump in the third quarter. Final sales to domestic purchasers eased to 2.8 percent from 4.1 percent in the third quarter."

Diving Into the GDP Report

With that backdrop, lets dive into the BEA Fourth Quarter and Annual 2014 Advance GDP Estimate.

Change in Real GDP - Personal Consumption Expenditures



click on chart for sharper image

Several PCE items stand out. Is the 2.87% increase sustainable?

And what about health care? In the last three quarters, health care expenditures added 0.45, 0.52, and 0.51 percentage points to GDP. Wasn't Obamacare supposed to reduce costs?

Curiously, gasoline added 0.25 percentage points to GDP in spite of rapidly falling prices.

Motor vehicles and parts show rapidly slowing growth since second quarter. That's a trend I expect to continue.

I discussed autos on January 6 in Economists Upbeat Despite 4th Consecutive Decline in Factory Orders; Auto Orders vs. Expectations.

Autos are slowing and so will auto-related jobs. Yet economists believe "Auto sales are expected to reach their highest level in a decade this year, bolstered by strong job gains and cheap gas."

My take: Autos will soon subtract from GDP.

Change in Real GDP - Gross Private Investment, Exports



Growth in fixed investment is falling rapidly. Equipment, industrial equipment, and transportation equipment are already in contraction.

Inventories added 0.82 percentage points to fourth quarter GDP. Over time, this series trends to zero, so expect a pull back next quarter.

Rising imports subtract from GDP. Imports actually took 1.39 percentage points from GDP. If oil prices head back up, even modestly, this number could get worse.

Exports added 0.37 percentage points to fourth quarter GDP. But note the trend.

Because of the rising US dollar, export growth is dwindling. Will exports add or subtract to GDP next quarter?

All things considered, this GDP report is far more than a simple snapback from the rapid expansion last quarter.

Canada in Recession, US Will Follow in 2015

Earlier today in Canada in Recession, US Will Follow in 2015, I stated "A Canadian recession is underway. US will follow."

Decoupling or Not?

I remain amused by all the pundits who think the US has "decoupled" from the global economy and will grow stronger in 2015.

Let's return to a question I asked above: Will exports add or subtract to GDP next quarter?

I suggest the answer is subtract. Not only are US exports getting more expensive relative to Europe and Japan, the entire rest of the global economy is slowing rapidly. Our biggest trading partner is Canada and Canada is in recession, with a rapidly sinking loonie (Canadian dollar) on top of it.

US Recession

The US won't decouple, just as China did not decouple from the global economy in 2008-2009 (a widely-held thesis I also knocked at the time).

Indeed, now that virtually no economist expects a US recession, I believe we are finally on the cusp of one, just as the Fed seems committed to hike.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Ivana Helsinki Tapiola Kauniainen Dress



Fantastic organic cotton dress from Finnish designer, IvanaHelsinki.  Features moody blues in abstract print from the Tapiola Kauniainen collection.  3/4 length sleeves, empire waist, and A-line skirt.  Hidden back zipper.  An easy piece for work or play.  Worn twice, and in excellent condition. Purchased from Beklina.

Size M/38
Shoulders: ~15"
Bust: ~38"
Waist: ~30"
Hips: free
Length: ~33"

Asking $60 with US shipping included.  PayPal only.

E-mail nikoshkopa{at}gmail.com with questions.

Please leave your e-mail address in the comments section only if you are truly interested.

Listing ends February 7, 2015, but willing to end it earlier.

Frei Designs Silk Dress



Beautiful aubergine silk dress with pleated skirt and tucks at the bust.  Made by eco-friendly Chicago designer, Frei of 100% silk, exclusive of zipper.  Fully lined in silk, and feels extra luxurious against the body.  Sleeveless, easy flowing skirt.  A-line shape with empire waist  Worn once, and in excellent condition.

Size 6
Bust: ~37"
Waist: ~30"
Hips: free
Length: 35"

Asking $60 with US shipping included.  PayPal only.

E-mail nikoshkopa{at}gmail.com with questions.

Please leave your e-mail address in the comments section only if you are truly interested.

Listing ends February 7, 2015, but willing to end the listing earlier.

TOAST shirt (from the lovely British company Toast)

*posted on behalf of Mina*

Size 8; 28" top to bottom. 16" pit to pit. Fits like XS
Excellent condition. This is a sturdy, 100% cotton shirt. 

Asking for $13; free shipping; listing ends in a week. Email questions to marumina (at) yahoo (dot) com

Black Crane pants

*posted on behalf of Mina*

Size Small. Elastic waist; 38" top to bottom
Excellent condition. These are relaxed and tapered, with a thick, textured dark navy fabric. They're slightly pleaded in front. Made in the U.S.A.

Asking for $78; free shipping; listing ends in a week. Email questions to marumina (at) yahoo (dot) com

More & Co. Sweatshirt

*posted on behalf of Mina*

Size 4- It's for "petite adults" who prefer a cropped fit, according to More and Co.'s website. 
It's 20" across and 20" long; 26" sleeves.
Never worn. I bought this for my kid, thinking it was a kid's size. Instead I bought an adult size, which I couldn't return because it's a final sale. (Of course, I later bought the right size for my kid, too, as it's a lovely sweatshirt.) Printed in the U.S.A. It's sold out on the site. 
Asking for $30; free shipping; listing ends in a week. Email questions to marumina (at) yahoo (dot) com

RiordanRoache Ombre Shirt Small


*posted on behalf of Heather*

Purchased on Etsy. I love this shirt but the sleeves are too tight on me - I'd recommend this for a true small if not an extra small. Soft bamboo/cotton long sleeve scoopneck tshirt with curved shirt-tail hem and hand dyed ombre sleeves. Content: 70% Cotton/30% Bamboo. Link to more photos here. There is very minor wear on the underside of the sleeves.

Bust 36"
Length (front side) 24",
Sleeve (underarm to cuff) 19"

Paid: $44 + shipping
Asking: $25 (includes shipping to the lower 48)
Listing ends one week from today

Anthropologie by Guinevere Cotton/Cashmere Cardigan Medium




*posted on behalf of Heather*

Soft cashmere/cotton blend cardigan, mustard yellow, medium. Color is very saturated, worn maybe once.

Asking: $20, includes shipping to the lower 48
Listing ends one week from today, please leave questions in the comments

Judah Ross Hutton Blouse Black Medium

*posted on behalf of Heather*

Really lovely top by NC maker Oami Powers. Her work is impeccable and she's not making clothes anymore so this is a collector's item! Classic button up blouse with a narrow collar, yoke and three quarter cuffed sleeves fastened by button tabs. This fabric is quite lightweight, just a tiny bit sheer, and despite my dreadful photographs it is true black in color. You can see the cut of the blouse in other fabrics here and here. Worn once.

Paid: $65 (on sale)
Asking: $30 (includes shipping to the lower 48)
Listing ends one week from today, please leave questions in the comments

Canada in Recession, US Will Follow in 2015

On January 21 when the Canadian Central Bank unexpected slashed interest rates, I wrote Canadian Recession Coming Up.

Following the rate cut, the yield curve in Canada inverted out to three years. Inversion means near-term interest rates are higher than long-term rates.

I saw no other person mention the inversion at the time. An inverted yield curve generally portends recession.

Nine days later, the Canadian yield curve is still inverted. Let's compare what I posted about the curve on January 21 vs. January 30.

Canadian Yield Curve January 21

  • 30-year: 2.044% (Today's Low 1.998%)
  • 10-Year: 1.426% (Today's Low 1.366%)
  • 05-Year: 0.791% (Down 19 basis points, an 18% decline)
  • 03-Year: 0.590% (Down 27 basis points, a 31% decline)
  • 02-Year: 0.560% (Down 29 basis points, a 34% decline)
  • 01-Year: 0.580% (Down 34 basis points, a 37% decline)
  • 01-Month: 0.640% (Down 22 basis points, a 26% decline)

Canadian Yield Curve January 30

  • 30-year: 1.834% (Down 21.0 basis points)
  • 10-Year: 1.250% (Down 17.6 basis points)
  • 05-Year: 0.603% (Down 18.8 basis points)
  • 03-Year: 0.386% (Down 20.4 basis points)
  • 02-Year: 0.392% (Down 16.8 basis points)
  • 01-Year: 0.490% (Down 9.0 basis points)
  • 01-Month: 0.580% (Down 6.0 basis points)

Not only did yields plunge across the board since then, the yield curve is still inverted all the way out to three years.

Recession Has Arrived

There is no point in waiting for further data. The Canadian recession has already arrived.

On Friday, the Financial Post reported Canada GDP Shrinks on Biggest Factory Drop in Six Years.
The Canadian dollar plunged below 79 cents US today after data showed Canada’s gross domestic product contracted in November as manufacturing dropped the most since January 2009 and on declines in mining and oil and gas extraction.

Output shrank by 0.2%, the most in 11 months, to an annualized $1.65 trillion, Statistics Canada said Friday in Ottawa. The median forecast in a Bloomberg economist survey was for output to be little changed.

Manufacturing declined by 1.9% in November, with losses ranging from machinery and equipment to plastics and rubber.

The Bank of Canada unexpectedly lowered borrowing costs last week for the first time since 2009, saying the move was meant to provide insurance as the slump in crude oil, the nation’s biggest export, weighed on the economy.

"Insurance"

The Bank of Canada called the rate cut "insurance". Insurance from what? If they think it will halt a recession, it won't. The recession is here. There is no need to wait for another quarter of declining GDP to confirm. A Canadian recession is underway.

US Will Follow

I remain amused by all the pundits who think the US has "decoupled" from the global economy and will grow stronger in 2015.

Here's news: "It won't", just as China did not decouple from the global economy in 2008-2009 (a widely-held thesis I also knocked at the time).

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Pendleton "Portland Collection" skirt

Black wool skirt from the "portland collection" - size small, fits size 2-4.  No tears, stains or signs of wear.  I think I only wore it once.

100% wool with 2 front pockets.

Asking $25 which includes shipping.  International shipping will be an additional $15

Thanks!










Steven Alan sweatshirt, size small

Purchased last spring, this sweatshirt is a nice neutral heather ivory with grey heather trim.  Barely worn, it is just gathering dust in my closet.

100% cotton, slim fit. Would fit a size 2-4 best.

Asking $20 + $5 shipping.

Thanks!





30 Ocak 2015 Cuma

Greece Will Not Accept Bailout Extension or Deal With "Rottenly Constructed" Troika; Mish's Game Theory Math

Greece Will No Longer Deal with ‘Troika’

It now strongly appears as if Greece, Germany, and the nannycrats in Brussels are all on one hell of a collision course. Both sides have dug in, and the war of words has escalated in all corners.

For example, please consider Greece Will No Longer Deal with ‘Troika’, Yanis Varoufakis Says
Greece will no longer co-operate with the “troika” of international lenders that has overseen its four-year bailout programme, the country’s finance minister said.

Yanis Varoufakis also said Greece would not accept an extension of its EU bailout, which expires at the end of February, and without which Greek banks could be shut off from European Central Bank funding.

“This position enabled us to win the trust of the Greek people,” Mr Varoufakis said during a joint news conference with Jeroen Dijsselbloem, chairman of the eurogroup of eurozone finance ministers, who was visiting Athens for the first time since a leftwing government came to power this week.

He also blasted the deeply unpopular bailout monitors from the European Commission, IMF and ECB, also known as “ the troika”, saying: “We are not going to co-operate with a rottenly constructed committee.”
Germany Prepared for Negotiation But Won't Negotiate

The position of Germany and Jeroen Dijsselbloem, chairman of the eurogroup of eurozone finance ministers, is equally one-sided.
Mr Dijsselbloem warned the new government against taking unilateral steps or ignoring arrangements with lenders, saying “the problems of the Greek economy have not disappeared overnight with the elections.”

Wolfgang Schäuble, German finance minister, warned Athens on Friday against trying to “blackmail” Germany with its financial demands.

Mr Schäuble said Germany was ready to co-operate but only on the basis of current agreements. “We’re prepared for any discussions at any time but the basis can’t be changed,” he said. “Beyond that, it is hard to blackmail us.” 

Martin Jäger, the German finance ministry spokesman, said any request for an extension of the existing financing programme would only be acceptable when it was “tied with a clear readiness of Greece to implement the agreed reforms”.
Gaming Theory

Everyone is willing to negotiate, but only on their terms. Realistically, no one is willing to negotiate. Moreover, the Troika has its hands full with Yanis Varoufakis, an expert who wrote a Book on Game Theory.

I suspect prime minister Alexis Tsipras picked Varoufakis precisely because of his skills at game theory.

New Game to Play

Please consider a few snips from Yanis Varoufakis: From Accidental Economist to Finance Minister by  Tony Aspromourgos, Professor at University of Sydney.
Varoufakis was a gifted and popular university teacher in Sydney. I know because I taught side-by-side with him for a number of years. He was also a thoughtful and productive researcher.

His research was first focused primarily upon game theory. But he also developed an expansive intellectual reach across what may be called “political economy” in the generic sense, particularly focused on the evolution of capitalism as a global system.

Hesitant politician

Varoufakis has described himself as an “accidental economist”. He is perhaps even more an accidental finance minister.

There is no reason to doubt the sincerity of his earlier expressed ambivalence about entering politics and the party-political fray. It is the vacuum created by the failure of the mainstream parties of the centre-left and centre-right that calls forth this participation.

The media’s referring to the new Greek government as “far left” or “radical left” is just an intellectually lazy acquiescence in the language of the European political and policy establishment.

In truth, the position of Syriza is not so way out. Syriza is merely left-wing, whereas the mainstream European parties supposedly of the centre-left are no longer left-wing at all.

New Game to Play

I mentioned above that Varoufakis’s earliest academic research was concerned with game theory, albeit from a rather critical standpoint. He has already broken down the realities of one Greek election using game analogies.

Game theory as a method of research in the social sciences is first and foremost about the logic of strategic interaction between players. The situation that is being played out now, between Greece (as well as others of the “south”) and the political establishment in Europe, is without doubt a strategic situation. It is a game of high-stakes policy poker with the players on both sides, perhaps engaged in an element of bluff.

It is interesting that a game theory expert should find himself, now, at the centre of this situation. There is a great deal at stake, for the welfare of the people of Greece, the other high-debt States and Europe as a whole, as well as for the viability of the European Union and the euro.
Nobody's Right If Everybody's Wrong

What if they are all wrong?

While pondering that philosophical question I offer another musical tribute.



link if video does not play: Buffalo Springfield - For What It's Worth 1967

There's battle lines being drawn
Nobody's right if everybody's wrong
Young people speakin' their minds
A gettin' so much resistance from behind
Time we stop, hey, what's that sound?
Everybody look what's going down

Olive Branch Smashed

Greece's refusal of a bailout extension puts a time limit on matters. The existing bailout agreement expires late-February, less than a month from now.

Interesting, the refusal to accept an extension comes on this olive branch just a few hours ago: Europe Hints at Greek Bailout Extension.

Grexit in the Cards?

Unless cooler heads prevail, Grexit is in the cards.

Right now it appears as if neither side will back down. Calling the Troika "Rottenly Constructed" surely sets the tone for Greece.

"We’re prepared for any discussions at any time but the basis can’t be changed" sets the tone for Germany.

I wonder if the Greek position is on purpose.

Tsipras' claim that he wants Greece to stay on the euro. That helped get him elected. Is that how he really feels?

If not, then unless he gets nearly everything he wants, Grexit is all but assured. And if no agreement is reached, Tsipras has an easy fallback plan: Blame it on Germany and the much hated Troika.

Mish's Game Theory Math

  • Greece will be severely disadvantaged in the short term if it exits. But it will also recover faster.
  • If Greece stays in the eurozone, on Germany's terms, it will bleed to death for another decade or more.
  • Germany and the Eurozone have more to lose than Greece.
  • If Greece exits, the entire eurozone will blow sky high simply because of "exit math"

Exit Math

I wrote about exit math twice recently.


If Germany and the eurozone does not bend significantly, Greece may very well come to the conclusion it has little to lose and everything to gain in the long haul by telling the Troika to go to hell.

And that is a position I endorse even though I disagree with many of the overall policies of SYRIZA.

In the end, my analysis says the eurozone has far more to lose than Greece if a Grexit occurs. However, I highly doubt Germany realizes that.

Even if Germany does, it takes unanimous agreement from all 19 eurozone countries to revise the agreement. That's part of the math.

Place your bets.

In the meantime I once again repeat my warning to Greek citizens: Another Run on Greek Banks Begins; Get Out While You Still Can; Buy Gold

Addendum:

In regards to "rottenly constructed", reader Lefteris emailed ... The minute I heard Varoufakis say “σαθρή”, I figured it would be badly translated. It’s not a very common word. In context, this word correctly translates as “weak”, “not cohesive”. A more negative translation is “flimsy”, but that’s not what Vafourakis meant.

I made a correction above, changing the word "ruined" to "severely damaged" in this sentence:  Greece will be severely disadvantaged in the short term if it exits. But it will also recover faster. That said, hyperinflation is a possibility, and if that happens, the currency would indeed be ruined. The country itself wouldn't.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Financial Blogger Profile of "Mish" on Equities.Com

Daniel Banas at Equities.Com interviewed me last week via phone for their profile series on "the most distinct and noteworthy voices in the world of financial blogging."

The interview transcript follows. First a few words ...

I am honored to be on that list.

The interview kicked off with a question on how I got started. I have commented on this before, but the short story is I was out of work, hanging around stock message boards, and Bill McBride (Calculated Risk) created the first template to my blog. Bill had just started his own blog and within a few years we became two of the top three economic blogs in the US.   

Somewhere along the line Barry Rithotz at the Big Picture Blog discovered me, frequently linking back to my blog. I like to mention those who have helped me out, even if we have recent differences of opinion on various issues.

Of the three top bloggers (not counting syndicates like Paul Krugman, or multiperson sites), Calculated Risk or Ritholtz typically held the top spot, but on a few occasions, I did.

Tweet From Barry

Today, Barry was nice enough to tweet "Nice Profile of Mike Shedlock (@MishGEA) at Equities.com Global Financial Community shar.es/1omVEm".

Thanks Barry. Appreciated. Here is a link to Mish Profile on Equities.Com.

Interview with Daniel Banas

EQ: What inspired you to start Mish’s Global Economic Trend Analysis?

Mish: Actually, my first speech at Google was on that exact subject. My background is in Civil Engineering. I got a degree from the University of Illinois in ’76 and worked for two years as an engineer. I couldn’t stand it, so I started working for banks, on the computer programming side.

As an Assistant Vice President of Harris Bank, I’ve been through more bank mergers than anyone could imagine. I was at Chase when Chase and Chemical merged. I was at Harris Bank when the Bank of Montreal locked them out. I didn’t like the culture change when BMO came in. I left, went out on my own, and became a consultant.

But anyway, I lost my job after 9/11. Computer consulting contracts started really drying up after Y2K. There were just no jobs. If you had a job in banking, you kept it. But if you were a contractor, you couldn’t get one. At the time the economy was booming, and I was out of work for three years. All year round, I’d stalk message boards, and Silicon Investor happened to be one of them. I had the most popular message boards on Motley Fool and Silicon Investor, and one day, a guy named Calculated Risk, who was a poster on my board on Silicon Investor, contacted me.

EQ: Bill McBride at Calculate Risk?

Mish: Exactly. He said, “Hey, look at this. This is pretty cool. Google’s got these things out there called blogs. We can post our thoughts on them.” He actually created the first template for my blog, and a few years later, Calculated Risk and I were the #1 and #3 bloggers in the entire country. When he sent that email, he said, “Google has these things called blogs, and best of all, they’re free!”

When you’re out of work for three years, “free” is not a nicety, “free” is a requirement. That’s how it all started, and then things really took off for me with a series of extremely good calls that I made about the housing bust in 2005, 2006 and 2007.

Then, when oil hit $140/barrel, everyone thought interest rates were going to go to the freaking moon. They assumed we had this massive wave of inflation coming, but I said: Expect record low interest rates across the entire U.S. treasury yield curve. People thought I was out of my mind.

EQ: Wow. Was that a profitable call for you?

Mish: Actually, I didn’t make a cent off that call, because I still had a little money coming in as a result of being out of work for three years. Then, the housing bust hit and the next thing you know, Bernanke was slashing interest rates like mad. One could have bought hugely out of the money calls on interest rate futures, and made a million on a $10,000 bet. I didn’t even profit from my call, other than to gain notoriety. So, that was my start right there. I certainly have not gotten everything right with the stock market, but I think I’ve called the global economy better than anyone since 2005.

My proudest accolade in those regards – every year in December, The New York Times comes out with their top ten ideas of the year. It can be ten ideas on anything about healthcare, industry, education, finance, anything medical. Their #1 idea for 2010, called “Do-It-Yourself Macroeconomics” was about bloggers that called the global economy better than any economist did. They mentioned three people in the article: Calculated Risk, me, and Barry Ritholtz.

See New York Times 10th Annual Year in Ideas; #1 Idea: Do-It-Yourself Macroeconomics.

EQ: That’s rarefied air. When you called the housing bubble, and you called oil, what were you drawing upon to make those calls?

Mish: First off, I could see the housing crash. This was pretty easy. We had a bubble in housing, and then a crash. So I could see Bernanke lowering interest rates. To me, oil going up to $140 was just more icing on the cake.

We were shedding jobs like mad and the price of gas was going through the roof. Where was it going? To me, it was real simple. I was also one of the few that called deflation. Deflation is still my model, although I define it a little bit differently than other people. I had so many people mocking me, and now deflation is all everyone is talking about.

Yet, I’m still mocked for the call. All the hyperinflationists out there still think I’m a fool, but I don’t care. I called it right. One thing that I’ve gotten wrong – and it’s important to admit your mistakes – I absolutely thought there was close to no chance that the US stock market would get as high as it has in the last two years. I failed to see how much QE would benefit the US stock market, even if it didn’t in Europe and other places. That was my miss, but that’s actually more of a stock market miss than an economic miss. Regardless, my record is certainly far from perfect.

EQ: Where do you think the US stock market is heading now?

Mish: (laughs) I’ve been wrong for two years, but I’ll be happy to answer. I think we’re seeing the beginning of the end. One of the things I said was that the idea that Central Banks are in control is wildly wrong. I don’t think they’re in control of anything. The reaction from the European Central Bank is going to be interesting to watch. Everyone’s expecting this massive bazooka. Even if they deliver and actually shock the market with some announcement—which I don’t even think they’re going to do – it wouldn’t surprise me to see a knee-jerk reaction higher, and an immediate sell off all day once people realize the emperor has no clothes.

EQ: So you don’t think the ECB is going to do enough to pull Europe out of their funk?

Mish: No. Look at the market reaction when the Swiss National Bank removed the peg to everyone’s surprise. We saw it again with the action from the Bank of Canada. Europe is slowing – Germany’s going to go into recession and take all of Europe with it. Spain is sort of recovering, but Italy and France aren’t, so where is Europe headed once Germany goes down?

China is clearly slowing as well. That’s another thing that I got right. I picked up a lot of that from Michael Pettis. Some of the things I got right were just from reading – all these views are out there, and deciding who makes the most sense.

The Australian dollar collapsed. I’ve gotten that right, iron ore right, and the Canadian dollar right, all for the right reason (China was slowing far more than most thought). Still, sitting on the sidelines didn’t translate to any gains in the stock market. We lost clients, as did others like John Hussman, by trying to do the prudent thing.

EQ: What’s the lesson we can take away from all the contraction?

Mish: People are willing to forgive you when you lose money – when the stock markets are going down – but heaven forbid, don’t ever miss a rally! Of course, that philosophy encourages more speculation.

Here’s the key question: Do you not speculate and lose clients when overvalued markets soar for no fundamental reason, or do you speculate with the herds and lose on the way down? That’s the moral dilemma for investment managers. We saw that dilemma in 2000, in 2007, and again now. The problem compounds over time because the size of the bubbles (and the busts) have increased over time.

In a way, the central banks won. Bernanke won, for now. The cover of Time declared “We Saved the World,” but watch what happens when the U.S. stock market goes down again.

In regards to the strength of the economy, every economist that Bloomberg surveyed said US interest rates would rise in 2014. I said they’d fall, and so did Lacy Hunt at Van Hoisington, manager of a $4 billion dollar US treasury fund. We both got the economic call correctly, but stocks soared anyway.

A lot of what I do is just to sort through all the news and try to figure out “Who is it that I want to believe and who is it I don’t?”

Sometimes I disagree with all of them. I have a disagreement right now with Michael Pettis on the global glut savings thesis, although I agree with him on nearly everything else. At some point, you’ve got to be your own person.

EQ: With so many differing opinions, what differentiates Mish’s Global Economic Trend Analysis from other financial blogs out there?

Mish: That’s easy – unlike Zero Hedge, my blog is just me. One advantage of just being me, and not taking a lot of guest posts, is that I provide a consistent point-of-view. That doesn’t mean I’m incapable of changing my mind – sometimes I do, but not that often.

I don’t post a lot of conspiracy theories – I don’t believe in them. That would be something that Zero Hedge might do. One day he might be talking hyperinflation, and the next day deflation. Some of the opinions are his and some are guest posts, so you start trying to be everything to everyone and throwing conspiracy theories on top of all of it – there’s no consistent point-of-view.

Calculated Risk does provide a consistent point-of-view. But his focus is mainly on the U.S. and housing. I go far more into Europe and Asia than most do. I also exchange emails all the time with a number of globally prominent economists, so I would say that’s a differentiation.

EQ: What general theses can visitors to your blog expect to read about these days?

Mish: Readers can expect commentary on the slowing global economy, global interest rates, the potential breakup of the Eurozone and what that may mean, and valuations of equities and various bonds.

I like gold. I like the miners. I’ve been on the wrong side of that trade actually for a few years, although I really, really like the recent action. I like Japanese equities, but hedged for a plunge in the yen. I think that trade has tremendous potential. Unlike the US, there’s a very decent chance that Japan goes into hyperinflation.

If that happens, that long Japanese equities but short the yen could literally be the trade of the century. Whether it plays out that way or not, and what timeframe, I don’t know. It all depends on how insane Abenomics in Japan gets.

EQ: Where do you stand on gold?

Mish: In regards to gold, it’s the same way. Most people don’t realize this, but gold traditionally does poorly in periods of disinflation. It does very well in periods of credit stress. It does well in periods of stagflation. It does very well in periods of deflation.

What I sense happening now is the global economy is shifting from disinflation to a deflationary bias.

People think that gold is some kind of inflation hedge, but it’s really not. Gold fell from $800 in 1980 to $250 in 2000 with inflation every step of the way. What happened in that period? The answer is falling interest rates, all along the way. That’s an environment in which gold does pretty badly.

In 2001 we started to see gold react to Fed deflation fighting moves. Gold soared along with everything else. Then, starting in 2011 or so, with ECB president Mario Draghi’s “Whatever it takes” statement we had this renewed and unfounded faith in central banks. Gold plunged as it normally does, when people have great faith in central banks.

Since early November, the thesis that central banks are in control is coming into question once again. Gold has been rising in every major currency, including the dollar, and especially the Euro.

When Jim Grant was once asked 'how should one value gold?', he proposed that the value of gold probably is '1/N', with 'N' standing for the faith people have in the monetary authority. The more this faith declines, the higher the price of gold will go.

My prediction for this year was that gold would rise with the U.S. dollar in the beginning of the year, and then soar in the latter half of this year, when all of these bets that the U.S. will hike because of a strengthening US economy go down the drain. Perhaps they get in a hike or two, then what?

EQ: That would go against common wisdom, but it does seem to make sense. Do you have one specific, overarching philosophy to investing?

Mish: Here’s some general advice: Don’t leverage. Be prepared to lose your job. Have six months, preferably a year’s worth, of money in cash in case you do lose your job. Once again everyone thinks “cash is trash”. When everyone or nearly everyone takes that view, look out below. 

Wait for better investment opportunities. It’s far easier to make up for lost opportunities than to recover from huge stock market losses. And finally, consider having 10 to 25% of your assets in gold (but no more than you can sleep with). Some people have higher tolerances than others.

That’s my whole thesis here right now. People don’t have to like shorts. They don’t need to do short. Even if they think the market’s going to go down, a lot of times, bears lose in bear markets. Sometimes the winner is he who loses least, so take some chips off the table and reduce your risk.

End Interview

Thanks to Bill McBride, Barry Ritholtz, Minyanville, Heinz Blasnik (the person who taught me Austrian economics), Michael Pettis (who taught me everything I know about trade), Steve Keen (for debt deflation theories), Daniel Banas, and everyone else who helped me along the way.

If you think I missed your name, I probably did. Apologies offered and mentally add you to the list cited.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Eurozone, Including Germany, in Deflation; Strange Times for Denmark, Deutschland and EU

Eurostat released HICP Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices statistics today.

In spite of promising that deflation would not hit again, here we are, and for the second month too.
Euro area annual inflation is expected to be -0.6% in January 2015, down from -0.2% in December 2014 according to a flash estimate from Eurostat, the statistical office of the European Union. This negative rate for euro area annual inflation in January is driven by the fall in energy prices (-8.9%, compared with -6.3% in December). Prices are also expected to fall for food, alcohol & tobacco (-0.1%, compared with 0.0% in December) and non-energy industrial goods (-0.1%, compared with 0.0% in December). Only prices for services are expected to increase (1.0%, compared with 1.2% in December).
HICP vs. Year Ago



click on any chart for sharper image

HICP Components by Month



HIPC 2005 to 2015 History



Even Germany in Deflation

The BBC reports Denmark, Deutschland and deflation: strange times for EU.
New official figures from Germany show that prices have fallen, by 0.5%, over the previous 12 months.

Meanwhile the Danish Central Bank has cut one of its main interest rates for the second time in a week.

It is a rate paid to commercial banks for excess funds parked at the central bank. It was already below zero. Now it is even lower - minus 0.5%.

It means banks have to pay to leave money at the central bank, above certain specified limits.

Negative interest rates are another example of the strange financial world that has emerged in the aftermath of the financial crisis.

What is the connection between falling prices - or deflation - in Germany and the Danish central bank? It is about Denmark's 35-year policy of tying its currency, the krone, to the euro, and before that to the German mark.

That peg has come under increasing strain as the European Central Bank, the ECB, has taken steps to combat deflation.
Denmark Peg

How long will Denmark be able to keep its peg to the euro?

The BBC says "Denmark is a smaller financial system and it is not an established magnet for internationally mobile money in the way that Switzerland is." The presumption is Denmark can keep its peg because its not an international player.

I say watch what happens if hedge funds start monkeying around with the Danish krone in size. We could easily see another Swiss-style event, albeit with smaller repercussions given that the krone is not the same hotbed of foreign mortgage obligations as Switzerland.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Ec 10 Guest Lectures


Above are the seven guest lecturers for ec 10 this spring. How many do you recognize?  A first-class econonerd would recognize them all.

Hint: Their initials are MF, GG, AA, AS, JS, JS, and LS.

29 Ocak 2015 Perşembe

Marine Le Pen Soars Into Lead in French Presidential Polls for 2017; Don't Worry, Nothing Can Possibly Go Wrong

In spite of the Charlie Hebdo murders that raised the popularity of French president Francois Hollande and his staff, Les Echos reports than in the 2017 presidential election anti-euro candidate Marine Le Pen in the 1st Round Lead With Nearly 30% of the Vote.
According to an IFOP 2017 presidential poll released Thursday, Marine Le Pen would come out clearly in the lead if the first round of presidential elections was held on Sunday.

Le Pen would get 29 to 31% of the vote. No rival would exceed 23%. Nicolas Sarkozy, Manuel Valls, and Alain Juppé, each have around 23%. François Hollande would get 21%.

Francois Bayrou would obtain 7 to 9%, Mélenchon 8%, Cécile Duflot and Nicolas Dupont-Aignan between 3 and 4% and the far left between 2 and 3%.

Prime Minister Valls would do better than Francois Hollande, with 23% of the vote.
Too Early Too Worry

Don't worry about 2017 until December 31, 2016. Instead worry about Greece and especially Spain. Spanish elections are scheduled for November of 2015.

On January 12, in Zugzwang! I noted the Spanish radical left party Podemos surges into lead. That surge adds another contagion wrinkle given the Podemos "Economic Manifesto" Calls for Debt Restructuring, Spain to Abandon the "Euro Trap".

"Spaniards should be aware that it is physically impossible that they can pursue policies that meet the national interest, within the euro as it is designed. The euro was conceived as a real trap, but nowhere is it written that people have to accept it ."

Inquiring minds may also wish to consider the Incredible Populist Positions in Podemos' "Economic Manifesto".

Don't Worry, Everything Under Control

In retrospect, it appears there may be too many things to worry about. So instead, sit back and relax. Repeat after me ... Nothing can possibly go wrong because central bankers are in complete control.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Conscription of People, Cars, Businesses in Ukraine for Mindless Slaughter; Entire Villages Leave to Avoid Servitude; Hop on the Bus Gus

Ukrainians Fighting Ukrainians

Forced military conscription (slavery is a better word) imposed on citizens of Ukraine has reached new heights recently.

The government in Kiev now demands those forced into slavery to hand over their cars for military use. As one might expect, avoidance of needless military slaughter has also reached new heights.

Before we get to those stories, I have a video to share. It is in Russian, but with English subtitles. I am told by reader Jacob Dreizin the translation is essentially correct, but a couple things were translated too literally.

I do offer this warning. The video is graphic and it does contain a lot of harsh language. The video is about captured Ukrainian POWs on a fool's mission to retake the Donetsk airport. After about 12 minutes or so it gets gruesome, the beginning is not so bad.

Warning aside, I recommend watching the video, entirely. Watch the scenes where locals confront the Ukrainian POWs. The video accurately portrays Ukrainians fighting Ukrainians, not Ukrainians fighting Russians.

Ukrainian POW's Face NAF Commander Givi and the Fury of Donetsk Residents



Link if Video Does not Play: UAF Storms Donetsk Airport and Gets Asses Handed to them by NAF.

Want a translation to Spanish, German, Dutch, Danish, or French? Go to Information Clearing House. That is where I picked up the Video.

Translation Corrections

  • Around 4:41, "And if we dropped on Kiev such mines?" should be, "And if we dropped such mortar rounds on Kiev?"
  • At 5:22, a more accurate translation would be "You'll rebuild our city."
  • Around 8:30 to 8:57,  "trucks" should be "armored vehicles (BMPs or BTRs)."
  • At 12:11, "respected" should be translated as "my good fellow."
  • At 19:31, should be more like "...his hands go lame", not his "...hands dry out."  They are translating too literally.
  • At the end, the security guy is just joking about hanging him, obviously that's out of the question. These POWs will be traded for NAF POWs.

Rebel Propaganda?

Is that video rebel propaganda? You bet. Is it effective? Yep. And it's also the truth. Kiev routinely sends soldiers on fool's missions hoping for a miracle. Instead it's been slaughter after slaughter. 

"No Regular Units of the Russian Army in Ukraine"

An important admission came today from Ukrainian military chief of staff, General Viktor Muzhenko, at a press briefing: "No Regular Units of the Russian Army in Ukraine".

Read link above for that statement. The title is different.

The admission was repeated by another Ukrainian news agency as well. Please consider Involvement of Russian Army in Illegal Armed Formation in Donbas.

Here's an exact (unedited) translation. Meaning is crystal clear.
Armed Forces General Staff has information about the participation of soldiers of the army of the Russian Federation in the conflict in eastern Ukraine.

This was announced during a briefing Armed Forces Chief of Staff Lieutenant General Victor Muzhenko.

"To date, we have only the involvement of some members of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation, Russian citizens as part of illegal armed groups in the fighting. Fighting units of the regular Russian army today we're also not. We have enough forces and means in order to inflict a final defeat even illegal armed formation "- he said.
Video Translation

Jacob Dreizin offers a better translation of the video in the first link.
"At this time, we have only proof of participation of individual members of the Russian Federation armed forces and Russian Federation citizens in the illegal armed formations (and) in military operations. Also, at this time we are not engaged in military operations against regular Russian army units."

By "illegal armed formations", he is referring to the DNR/LNR.
Even if one believes there are "Russian Regulars" in Ukraine, its probably a number of "trainers" not the alleged 15,000.

For further discussion, please see Attack on Mariupol Begins; 7,000-8,000 Ukrainian Forces Nearly Encircled in Northern Cauldron; US Sends Army Trainers.

Conscription of People, Cars in Ukraine for Mindless Slaughter

The mindless slaughter should be obvious from previous videos I have posted. So let's move on to a another topic: new slavery (conscription) requirements.

Odessa Region "Recruits" Ordered to Quit Jobs and Turn Over Cars

Via translation please consider Odessa Region Recruits Ordered to Quit Jobs and Turn Over Cars.
In the Belgorod-Dniester district of Odessa region reserve servicemen were banned from leaving the area. The ban applies even to those who have not yet received a summons.

Businesses commissar requires organizations to dismiss employees receiving a summons and to ensure the attendance of recruits at the points specified in the mobilization orders.

In addition, citizens, businesses and organizations required to hand over to the military conscription office all serviceable vehicles.
Mobilization 2015: In Transcarpathia Entire Villages Go Abroad

Here's another story on the same subject: Mobilization 2015: In Transcarpathia Entire Villages Go Abroad
In 2015, only 6% of persons subject to mobilization, are volunteers according to Oleg Boyko, Main Directorate of Mobilization. This compares to 20% in the first wave of mobilization in 2014.

"The biggest problem in mobilization activities in the Transcarpathian region," - he said.

According to Boyko, sometimes whole villages leave the country. "There is a report of the Chairman of the Kosovo village of the district, according to which the local population has hired two buses and drove them to the Russian Federation."

In the Ternopil region, there continues a mass escape of the male population abroad. "Strange as this may seem, people flee to the Russian Federation", said Boyko.
Mindless!

"Strange as this may seem, people flee to the Russian Federation", said Boyko. It's only strange if you are a mindless idiot.

Military Servicemen Massively Flee Abroad

Also via translation, please consider Military Servicemen Massively Flee Abroad

The article relates to what Oleg Boyko, chief of the Draft Directorate of the Main Directorate for Defense and Mobilization Planning of the Ukrainian General Staff, said at a meeting with President Poroshenko's office yesterday:
A representative of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine appealed to the government to formulate a bill to prevent citizens of Ukraine from leaving the country.

In particular, he suggested that the Government develop a change in the law "On the departure of Ukrainian citizens abroad, subject to conscription in a special period."

A representative of the General Staff proposed to revise downward the list of enterprises, institutions and organizations that are exempt from equipment mobilization for the needs of the army.

He noted the need to amend border crossing rules due to the fact that during the current mobilization phase, entire villages go abroad to avoid conscription. In particular, they head to the territory of the Russian Federation.

According to the Ternopil military commissariat (draft board) "the population of Ternopol province is quitting their jobs en masse, with the goal of avoiding the draft. Draft eligibles are also leaving the country en masse. In the Ternopil region, two buses of the local population went to the Russian Federation."

There are also problems with the mobilization of equipment for the needs of the army.
My Advice

Here's my belated advice to those living in Ukraine: "Get the F* out of Ukraine. Now!"

Small Price Theory Revisited

I wrote about the "small price theory" on August 8, 2014, in "Small Price to Pay".

It seems the "small price" keeps getting bigger, and bigger, and bigger.

Jacob Dreizin wrote today ... Maybe your "Small Price to Pay" friend would like to come to Ukraine and take the place of all these draft dodgers? Surely his life would be a small price to pay to keep the world safe for democracy. Instead, does he have any kids to spare?

That's the problem isn't it? As reader Bran from Spain once emailed, "Proponents of the small price theory never really have much at stake. Everyone else does."

It's pretty damn clear those in Ukraine whose sons and daughters are forced to fight a stupid war have decided "this ain't no small price!" Meanwhile, those in the US who manufacture weapons and hope to send more of them to Ukraine for a profit are the biggest proponents of the "small price" theory.

My friend is not in the latter category, and he was staunchly against the Vietnam war. Rather, he simply is not thinking clearly now, idealistically hoping for some of global "UN-sponsored united world peace concept" (my phrasing not his), that must be defended at all costs, presumably even nuclear war with Russia.

Hop on the Bus Gus

In honor of Ukrainians citizens smart enough to disavow the "small price" theory and willing to tell their government to F* off, I offer this musical tribute.



Link if Video does not Play: 50-Ways Paul Simon

Hop on the bus Guss
Don't need to discuss much
Just drop off the keys Lee
And get yourself free!

No one has the right to own you. No one. No government. Ever!

To disagree with the above is to support forced slavery.

This War is Over

The Vietnam war ended when public support turned against it, even though fighting continued long after.

The same applies here. The war is over. Hearts and minds have been lost along with the will to fight. Ukraine is split in two, barring a major military intervention by the US.

Even though the war is over, the fighting can continue. How much longer the battles go on now depends on the US and IMF.

  1. The US can fund the bloodshed for a while longer and so can the IMF. US war-mongers may decide no price is too high to pay, even to the absurd point of engaging Russia directly.
  2. The US and IMF can force true peace negotiations on Kiev with a partition or federation of the country. But, what may have been acceptable to the separatists and Russia six months ago may no longer be so.

Either way, Ukraine is never going to be a single country again. Such is the madness of arbitrarily drawing borders with no regard to cultural, political, or religious beliefs.

The war is over. Kiev lost, even with the backing of the US. Let the peace process begin before more lives are lost and more needless destruction occurs.

I authorize translation and republication of this individual article, to any language, on any site, as long as it contains a link back to this article.
 
Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Bravery = Stupidity? Alibaba Takes on the PRC

In a fight between Alibaba and the PRC, I'd bet on the PRC to win.
 There's interesting news out today on Alibaba, China's giant business-to-business (B2B), business-to-consumer (B2C), and consumer-to-consumer (C2C) Internet giant. Just in September of last year, it supposedly set the record for the world's biggest initial public offering (IPO), making Jack Ma and company very wealthy people. I can only imagine that they were overjoyed then. But than was then and this is now: Alibaba stock is taking a beating since its earnings fell well below expectations in 3Q 2014. Alibaba now being a global company, its stock is sensitive to market sentiment the world over even if its reporting is a quarter later than that of US companies.

Partly it's bad timing as Alibaba has gone into forays like mobile services as China's economy has slowed down:
Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. revenue missed estimates as the e-commerce giant’s push into mobile curbed its advertising sales growth. The shares fell. Revenue was 26.2 billion yuan ($4.2 billion) in the third quarter, compared with the 27.6 billion-yuan average of 25 analyst estimates. Ads on mobile phones generate less money than on desktop computers because of smaller screens, and transactions on the Tmall platform grew at a slower pace, the Hangzhou-based company said Thursday. 
Even if its most recent results have been well below market expectations, the Chinese government has undoubtedly treated its homegrown technology firms better than foreign ones. The objective, of course, is to encourage the emergence of PRC-based alternatives to the likes of Amazon, e-Bay, Google, etc. However, Alibaba now alleges that heavy-handed tactics government regulators have more frequently used on Western firms are now being applied to it:
Alibaba, which connects consumers and businesses across its platforms, has a “credibility crisis” fueled by its failure to crack down on shady merchants, counterfeit goods, bribery and misleading promotions, the Chinese government said Wednesday. The report by the State Administration for Industry & Commerce [SAIC] accused Alibaba of allowing merchants to operate without required business licenses, to run unauthorized stores that co-opt famous brands and sell fake wine and handbags.

 “The scale of the revelations could leave Alibaba with substantial reputational damage,” said Cyrus Mewawalla, managing director of London-based CM Research. “We still see several risks in this stock that may in the coming months overshadow the earnings growth.” 
Apparently, Alibaba's leadership is not taking SAIC's clampdown in stride, accusing their own government of heavy-handedness:
Vice Chairman Joseph Tsai criticized the findings during Thursday’s earnings conference call and reaffirmed a commitment to ethical business practices. The company decided to file a complaint against the SAIC official who oversaw a meeting with Alibaba representatives in July to discuss the claims.

“We believe the flawed approach taken in the report, and the tactic of releasing a so-called ‘white paper’ specifically targeting us, was so unfair that we felt compelled to take the extraordinary step of preparing a formal complaint to the SAIC,” Tsai said.
Alibaba said in its IPO prospectus there were allegations in the past, and likely would be in the future, that the company’s platforms were selling goods that were counterfeit or infringed on other copyrights including music. The company takes a “very draconian” approach to counterfeits, Tsai said in an interview with Bloomberg Television on Thursday. “There’s nothing more important than the trust consumers have in our platform,” he said.
Now this is far more interesting than missed earnings: Alibaba complaining of unfair treatment from its government. My general take is that the Chinese government, which otherwise is a large champion of Alibaba, is wary of its forays into telecoms, financial services and what else have you since over-diversification may be an unwise strategy at a time the Chinese economy is being cooled down. Of course, Chinese government officials also have to consider the interests of other PRC industrialists whose turf Alibaba is muscling into. Hence, the government may be giving a not-so-veiled message that Alibaba should not expand so much so quickly into other industries and areas.

Moreover, since when did the Chinese government care about copyright infringement on a large scale? It's often been treated as nothing more than an American whine. The timing, target and complaint are triply suspect. Unless the Communist Party leadership really wanted to, this would probably not have happened under normal circumstances. Someone really wants get a message across to Alibaba that it has to toe the (Party) line.

Besides, biting the hand that feeds is usually an unwise strategy. PRC leaders may feel they have to knock some sense into Alibaba since they may be holding themselves in too high regard relative to other Chinese businesses and must be knocked down a peg or two. The nail that sticks out gets hammered down: wham-wham-wham!

UPDATE 1: Forbes has more on the story, noting that there have been several high-profile incidents where noveau riche businesspersons have taken on the mighty PRC and lost badly. These appear towards the end of the story; also see this:
By Thursday both sides backed down a little, with the SAIC quietly removing the White Paper [on Alibaba's allegedly lax attitudes towards counterfeit goods] from its website and Alibaba taking down the initial rebuff directed at the director. Yet this gesture doesn’t mean Alibaba is giving in – during the earnings call on Thursday, executive vice chairman Joe Tsai said that the company was preparing to file a formal complaint. Alibaba shares plunged 8.8% in the aftermath due to investors’ concerns over slowed growth, political risks and lack of information transparency.

As an article reprinted by Xinhua News Agency stated, this incident is “the most heated confrontation between the government and an enterprise in the era of Internet economy” and may prove to “have milestone implications.” Alibaba, with its prominence in China’s internet ecosystem, global status and not the least, politically connected investors, may be uniquely positioned to challenge a state-level government entity.
UPDATE 2: Quartz has a translation of the now-famous White Paper which SAIC has since taken down. Here's an excerpt:
Poor supervision on products information. On the platform of Taobao Net and Alibaba, products and service information shows there is an invasion of others exclusive rights to use registered trademarks, trade of substandard quality products, and trade of products without lawful import sources, are banned by the state, or are pyramid schemes.
UPDATE 3: Alibaba may also be facing heat Stateside over non-disclosure of the PRC's investigation concerning its tolerance of counterfeiting.

Reduced: Huge Labradorite Cocktail Ring

Gorgeous, huge labradorite cocktail ring. It's faceted to pick up light from all angle. If you're not familiar with labradorite, it's a sort of brown-grey with veins of blue and a sort of rainbow effect. A spectacular stone that goes with anything.

Set in Gold Vermeil. Size 7-7.5.  I just don't find myself wearing statement jewelry, and would love someone to get to enjoy this!

Materials: Labradorite and Gold Vermeil
Size: 7 (would fit 7.5)
Asking: $50 Now 40 plus $3 shipping

I'm selling a few jewelry items, and am happy to combine shipping if you want to buy more than one.

If interested, leave your name in the comments or email jessiegaskell@gmail.com. Listing ends one week from today.

31 Ocak 2015 Cumartesi

Arnsdorf Jeans, Size 30 AU (28/6 US)




Great slim jeans from indie Aussie label Arnsdorf. High rise, tapered leg, khaki color with golden brown stitching. 96% cotton, 4% elastane, super comfortable and flattering fit (last photo shows fit, but is of a different color). Made in Australia. Excellent condition, I just can't wear jeans most days and these don't get enough wear.

Size: labeled a 30, but fits like a 28 or a 6. Laying flat, measures 15" across the waist, 5.5" across the leg opening. 28" inseam, 10" rise, 38" in total length.

Paid: $100 on sale? Asking: $50 + $5 shipping in the US.

Listing ends: February 7.

Leave any questions in the comments section, thanks!

Inhabit Cashmere Sweater, Size Small


Nice red cashmere sweater from Inhabit. Wide neck, oversized fit. Great condition, worn a few times. Just doesn't see enough wear in my closet.

Size: Small. Measures 21.5" wide, 27" long.

Paid: $175 on sale -- retailed for $350. 

Asking: $55 + $5 shipping in the US.

Listing ends: February 7. 

Flattery? The Fake Chinese Land Rover Evoque

If the man on the street can't tell the difference, why not pay less than a third for the fake?
The previous post on Chinese authorities "cracking down" on Alibaba for allegedly being lenient towards intellectual property violators jogged my memory about this post I planned to write but forgot somewhere down the line. The Land Rover Evoque has been a hit sports-utility vehicle (SUV) the world over with its stylish appearance and the prestigious Land Rover badge--including in China. It was probably only a matter of time, then, that someone thought of making a nearly-indistiguishable copy. In the image above, which is the real Evoque and which is the fake? (It's the one below.)

If imitation is the sincerest form of flattery, the Chinese are very sincere indeed. Anyway, on to the story:
Land Rover is weighing up its options in regards to the new Landwind X7 SUV, which appears to be a very close copy of the Range Rover Evoque, one of Land Rover's best-selling models. The Landwind X7 had its global debut at the 2014 Guangzhou Auto Show last week and Land Rover's most senior employee, CEO Ralph Speth, is none too pleased. "The fact that this kind of copying is ongoing in China is very disappointing," Land Rover's CEO told UK-based Autocar.

Although it's unlikely much will be achieved within China, where the Landwind X7 is now on sale for about one third the price of a Chinese-built Evoque, Speth is not going down without a fight to protect the company's intellectual property (IP). "The simple principle is that it is not something that should happen; the intellectual property is owned by Jaguar Land Rover, and if you break that IP then you are in breach of international regulations that apply around the world," stated Speth.
The funny thing is, there are no real remedial actions Jaguar-Land Rover (JLR) can take in present-day China to contest their intellectual property rights. Where is the State Administration for Industry and Commerce (SAIC) in this case? An oddity is that JLR has a deal with Chinese automaker Chery to build copies there. Would Chery be better able to enforce JLR's IP rights? If not, JLR's best hope may be to limit export sales of the knock-offs absent any real action it can take in the PRC:
Legal action is unlikely, and virtually impossible within China, as most major companies are have partial government-ownership. The best Land Rover can hope for is that the vehicle is not exported to one of the Evoque's major markets.

The plot looks set to thicken however, as Land Rover has formed an alliance with Chery Automobile in China, which means the Range Rover Evoque is also built on the Chinese mainland by said company. Essentially, Chinese motorists can choose to buy the Landwind X7 for around $A23,000 (120,000 yuan), or the Range Rover Evoque for roughly $A76,000 (400,000 yuan), both of which look virtually identical "I will talk to our officials and I will talk to our partners at Chery to find a way around this situation," the Land Rover CEO said in relation to both cars being offered in China.
Lip service aside, I do not think the Chinese are making any strides in enforcing intellectual property at all. Sure the PRC can bash Alibaba for political reasons, but I do not really think this represents a crackdown on fakes given the ready availability of knock-off cars and virtually everything else on the streets of major cities.  

Diving Into the GDP Report - Some Ominous Trends - Yellen Yap - Decoupling or Not?

Yellen Yap

On Thursday, Fed Chair Janet Yellen met with Senate Democrats at a private luncheon. She told the Democrats that the U.S. Economy is Strong.

My first thought was "what the heck is Yellen doing holding a private lunch with Democrats only?" Had she met with Senate Republicans, I would have asked the same question.

Apparently this is common procedure for Yellen, so perhaps I am reading too much into it.

Yet, I cannot help wondering if the real purpose of the meeting was to persuade Democrats to block any "Audit the Fed" Initiatives.

Glowing Report

Regardless of the reason, Yellen had some pretty glowing things to say.

“She went through the issues of unemployment and inflation. Very positive. And economic growth numbers were good, have been good. There’s work to be done,” Sen. Richard Durbin (D-Ill.) said after the luncheon.

No Rate Hike Soon

Bloomberg reported Yellen Tells Senators No Rate Rise Soon Amid Concerns Abroad.
“Her message is that the economy’s getting better but there’s still a ways to go in terms of job creation,” New York Senator Charles Schumer said today in an interview on Capitol Hill. “That worry seems, in her mind, to be paramount and that’s why she is not going to raise rates immediately.”

The Fed upgraded its assessment of the U.S. economy in a statement on Wednesday after a meeting of its policy-setting committee, while adding a reference to “international developments” which investors took as a sign of mounting worry about weakness overseas.

Yellen shared “some concern about the foreign situation,” said Virginia Senator Tim Kaine, who said her comments were “pretty positive about the fundamentals here.”

Economists said the confident tone of the statement from the Federal Open Market Committee signals it is on track to raise interest rates this year, while making the point it is not ignoring the weaker performance of the global economy.
GDP Expectations Fall Short

On Friday 4th quarter GDP estimates came in below economist expectations. Bloomberg reported "The advance estimate for fourth quarter GDP growth disappointed with a 2.6 percent figure versus analysts' estimate of 3.2 percent and following 5.0 percent for the third quarter. Final sales of domestic product slowed to 1.8 percent, following a 5.0 percent jump in the third quarter. Final sales to domestic purchasers eased to 2.8 percent from 4.1 percent in the third quarter."

Diving Into the GDP Report

With that backdrop, lets dive into the BEA Fourth Quarter and Annual 2014 Advance GDP Estimate.

Change in Real GDP - Personal Consumption Expenditures



click on chart for sharper image

Several PCE items stand out. Is the 2.87% increase sustainable?

And what about health care? In the last three quarters, health care expenditures added 0.45, 0.52, and 0.51 percentage points to GDP. Wasn't Obamacare supposed to reduce costs?

Curiously, gasoline added 0.25 percentage points to GDP in spite of rapidly falling prices.

Motor vehicles and parts show rapidly slowing growth since second quarter. That's a trend I expect to continue.

I discussed autos on January 6 in Economists Upbeat Despite 4th Consecutive Decline in Factory Orders; Auto Orders vs. Expectations.

Autos are slowing and so will auto-related jobs. Yet economists believe "Auto sales are expected to reach their highest level in a decade this year, bolstered by strong job gains and cheap gas."

My take: Autos will soon subtract from GDP.

Change in Real GDP - Gross Private Investment, Exports



Growth in fixed investment is falling rapidly. Equipment, industrial equipment, and transportation equipment are already in contraction.

Inventories added 0.82 percentage points to fourth quarter GDP. Over time, this series trends to zero, so expect a pull back next quarter.

Rising imports subtract from GDP. Imports actually took 1.39 percentage points from GDP. If oil prices head back up, even modestly, this number could get worse.

Exports added 0.37 percentage points to fourth quarter GDP. But note the trend.

Because of the rising US dollar, export growth is dwindling. Will exports add or subtract to GDP next quarter?

All things considered, this GDP report is far more than a simple snapback from the rapid expansion last quarter.

Canada in Recession, US Will Follow in 2015

Earlier today in Canada in Recession, US Will Follow in 2015, I stated "A Canadian recession is underway. US will follow."

Decoupling or Not?

I remain amused by all the pundits who think the US has "decoupled" from the global economy and will grow stronger in 2015.

Let's return to a question I asked above: Will exports add or subtract to GDP next quarter?

I suggest the answer is subtract. Not only are US exports getting more expensive relative to Europe and Japan, the entire rest of the global economy is slowing rapidly. Our biggest trading partner is Canada and Canada is in recession, with a rapidly sinking loonie (Canadian dollar) on top of it.

US Recession

The US won't decouple, just as China did not decouple from the global economy in 2008-2009 (a widely-held thesis I also knocked at the time).

Indeed, now that virtually no economist expects a US recession, I believe we are finally on the cusp of one, just as the Fed seems committed to hike.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Ivana Helsinki Tapiola Kauniainen Dress



Fantastic organic cotton dress from Finnish designer, IvanaHelsinki.  Features moody blues in abstract print from the Tapiola Kauniainen collection.  3/4 length sleeves, empire waist, and A-line skirt.  Hidden back zipper.  An easy piece for work or play.  Worn twice, and in excellent condition. Purchased from Beklina.

Size M/38
Shoulders: ~15"
Bust: ~38"
Waist: ~30"
Hips: free
Length: ~33"

Asking $60 with US shipping included.  PayPal only.

E-mail nikoshkopa{at}gmail.com with questions.

Please leave your e-mail address in the comments section only if you are truly interested.

Listing ends February 7, 2015, but willing to end it earlier.

Frei Designs Silk Dress



Beautiful aubergine silk dress with pleated skirt and tucks at the bust.  Made by eco-friendly Chicago designer, Frei of 100% silk, exclusive of zipper.  Fully lined in silk, and feels extra luxurious against the body.  Sleeveless, easy flowing skirt.  A-line shape with empire waist  Worn once, and in excellent condition.

Size 6
Bust: ~37"
Waist: ~30"
Hips: free
Length: 35"

Asking $60 with US shipping included.  PayPal only.

E-mail nikoshkopa{at}gmail.com with questions.

Please leave your e-mail address in the comments section only if you are truly interested.

Listing ends February 7, 2015, but willing to end the listing earlier.

TOAST shirt (from the lovely British company Toast)

*posted on behalf of Mina*

Size 8; 28" top to bottom. 16" pit to pit. Fits like XS
Excellent condition. This is a sturdy, 100% cotton shirt. 

Asking for $13; free shipping; listing ends in a week. Email questions to marumina (at) yahoo (dot) com

Black Crane pants

*posted on behalf of Mina*

Size Small. Elastic waist; 38" top to bottom
Excellent condition. These are relaxed and tapered, with a thick, textured dark navy fabric. They're slightly pleaded in front. Made in the U.S.A.

Asking for $78; free shipping; listing ends in a week. Email questions to marumina (at) yahoo (dot) com

More & Co. Sweatshirt

*posted on behalf of Mina*

Size 4- It's for "petite adults" who prefer a cropped fit, according to More and Co.'s website. 
It's 20" across and 20" long; 26" sleeves.
Never worn. I bought this for my kid, thinking it was a kid's size. Instead I bought an adult size, which I couldn't return because it's a final sale. (Of course, I later bought the right size for my kid, too, as it's a lovely sweatshirt.) Printed in the U.S.A. It's sold out on the site. 
Asking for $30; free shipping; listing ends in a week. Email questions to marumina (at) yahoo (dot) com

RiordanRoache Ombre Shirt Small


*posted on behalf of Heather*

Purchased on Etsy. I love this shirt but the sleeves are too tight on me - I'd recommend this for a true small if not an extra small. Soft bamboo/cotton long sleeve scoopneck tshirt with curved shirt-tail hem and hand dyed ombre sleeves. Content: 70% Cotton/30% Bamboo. Link to more photos here. There is very minor wear on the underside of the sleeves.

Bust 36"
Length (front side) 24",
Sleeve (underarm to cuff) 19"

Paid: $44 + shipping
Asking: $25 (includes shipping to the lower 48)
Listing ends one week from today

Anthropologie by Guinevere Cotton/Cashmere Cardigan Medium




*posted on behalf of Heather*

Soft cashmere/cotton blend cardigan, mustard yellow, medium. Color is very saturated, worn maybe once.

Asking: $20, includes shipping to the lower 48
Listing ends one week from today, please leave questions in the comments

Judah Ross Hutton Blouse Black Medium

*posted on behalf of Heather*

Really lovely top by NC maker Oami Powers. Her work is impeccable and she's not making clothes anymore so this is a collector's item! Classic button up blouse with a narrow collar, yoke and three quarter cuffed sleeves fastened by button tabs. This fabric is quite lightweight, just a tiny bit sheer, and despite my dreadful photographs it is true black in color. You can see the cut of the blouse in other fabrics here and here. Worn once.

Paid: $65 (on sale)
Asking: $30 (includes shipping to the lower 48)
Listing ends one week from today, please leave questions in the comments

Canada in Recession, US Will Follow in 2015

On January 21 when the Canadian Central Bank unexpected slashed interest rates, I wrote Canadian Recession Coming Up.

Following the rate cut, the yield curve in Canada inverted out to three years. Inversion means near-term interest rates are higher than long-term rates.

I saw no other person mention the inversion at the time. An inverted yield curve generally portends recession.

Nine days later, the Canadian yield curve is still inverted. Let's compare what I posted about the curve on January 21 vs. January 30.

Canadian Yield Curve January 21

  • 30-year: 2.044% (Today's Low 1.998%)
  • 10-Year: 1.426% (Today's Low 1.366%)
  • 05-Year: 0.791% (Down 19 basis points, an 18% decline)
  • 03-Year: 0.590% (Down 27 basis points, a 31% decline)
  • 02-Year: 0.560% (Down 29 basis points, a 34% decline)
  • 01-Year: 0.580% (Down 34 basis points, a 37% decline)
  • 01-Month: 0.640% (Down 22 basis points, a 26% decline)

Canadian Yield Curve January 30

  • 30-year: 1.834% (Down 21.0 basis points)
  • 10-Year: 1.250% (Down 17.6 basis points)
  • 05-Year: 0.603% (Down 18.8 basis points)
  • 03-Year: 0.386% (Down 20.4 basis points)
  • 02-Year: 0.392% (Down 16.8 basis points)
  • 01-Year: 0.490% (Down 9.0 basis points)
  • 01-Month: 0.580% (Down 6.0 basis points)

Not only did yields plunge across the board since then, the yield curve is still inverted all the way out to three years.

Recession Has Arrived

There is no point in waiting for further data. The Canadian recession has already arrived.

On Friday, the Financial Post reported Canada GDP Shrinks on Biggest Factory Drop in Six Years.
The Canadian dollar plunged below 79 cents US today after data showed Canada’s gross domestic product contracted in November as manufacturing dropped the most since January 2009 and on declines in mining and oil and gas extraction.

Output shrank by 0.2%, the most in 11 months, to an annualized $1.65 trillion, Statistics Canada said Friday in Ottawa. The median forecast in a Bloomberg economist survey was for output to be little changed.

Manufacturing declined by 1.9% in November, with losses ranging from machinery and equipment to plastics and rubber.

The Bank of Canada unexpectedly lowered borrowing costs last week for the first time since 2009, saying the move was meant to provide insurance as the slump in crude oil, the nation’s biggest export, weighed on the economy.

"Insurance"

The Bank of Canada called the rate cut "insurance". Insurance from what? If they think it will halt a recession, it won't. The recession is here. There is no need to wait for another quarter of declining GDP to confirm. A Canadian recession is underway.

US Will Follow

I remain amused by all the pundits who think the US has "decoupled" from the global economy and will grow stronger in 2015.

Here's news: "It won't", just as China did not decouple from the global economy in 2008-2009 (a widely-held thesis I also knocked at the time).

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Pendleton "Portland Collection" skirt

Black wool skirt from the "portland collection" - size small, fits size 2-4.  No tears, stains or signs of wear.  I think I only wore it once.

100% wool with 2 front pockets.

Asking $25 which includes shipping.  International shipping will be an additional $15

Thanks!










Steven Alan sweatshirt, size small

Purchased last spring, this sweatshirt is a nice neutral heather ivory with grey heather trim.  Barely worn, it is just gathering dust in my closet.

100% cotton, slim fit. Would fit a size 2-4 best.

Asking $20 + $5 shipping.

Thanks!





30 Ocak 2015 Cuma

Greece Will Not Accept Bailout Extension or Deal With "Rottenly Constructed" Troika; Mish's Game Theory Math

Greece Will No Longer Deal with ‘Troika’

It now strongly appears as if Greece, Germany, and the nannycrats in Brussels are all on one hell of a collision course. Both sides have dug in, and the war of words has escalated in all corners.

For example, please consider Greece Will No Longer Deal with ‘Troika’, Yanis Varoufakis Says
Greece will no longer co-operate with the “troika” of international lenders that has overseen its four-year bailout programme, the country’s finance minister said.

Yanis Varoufakis also said Greece would not accept an extension of its EU bailout, which expires at the end of February, and without which Greek banks could be shut off from European Central Bank funding.

“This position enabled us to win the trust of the Greek people,” Mr Varoufakis said during a joint news conference with Jeroen Dijsselbloem, chairman of the eurogroup of eurozone finance ministers, who was visiting Athens for the first time since a leftwing government came to power this week.

He also blasted the deeply unpopular bailout monitors from the European Commission, IMF and ECB, also known as “ the troika”, saying: “We are not going to co-operate with a rottenly constructed committee.”
Germany Prepared for Negotiation But Won't Negotiate

The position of Germany and Jeroen Dijsselbloem, chairman of the eurogroup of eurozone finance ministers, is equally one-sided.
Mr Dijsselbloem warned the new government against taking unilateral steps or ignoring arrangements with lenders, saying “the problems of the Greek economy have not disappeared overnight with the elections.”

Wolfgang Schäuble, German finance minister, warned Athens on Friday against trying to “blackmail” Germany with its financial demands.

Mr Schäuble said Germany was ready to co-operate but only on the basis of current agreements. “We’re prepared for any discussions at any time but the basis can’t be changed,” he said. “Beyond that, it is hard to blackmail us.” 

Martin Jäger, the German finance ministry spokesman, said any request for an extension of the existing financing programme would only be acceptable when it was “tied with a clear readiness of Greece to implement the agreed reforms”.
Gaming Theory

Everyone is willing to negotiate, but only on their terms. Realistically, no one is willing to negotiate. Moreover, the Troika has its hands full with Yanis Varoufakis, an expert who wrote a Book on Game Theory.

I suspect prime minister Alexis Tsipras picked Varoufakis precisely because of his skills at game theory.

New Game to Play

Please consider a few snips from Yanis Varoufakis: From Accidental Economist to Finance Minister by  Tony Aspromourgos, Professor at University of Sydney.
Varoufakis was a gifted and popular university teacher in Sydney. I know because I taught side-by-side with him for a number of years. He was also a thoughtful and productive researcher.

His research was first focused primarily upon game theory. But he also developed an expansive intellectual reach across what may be called “political economy” in the generic sense, particularly focused on the evolution of capitalism as a global system.

Hesitant politician

Varoufakis has described himself as an “accidental economist”. He is perhaps even more an accidental finance minister.

There is no reason to doubt the sincerity of his earlier expressed ambivalence about entering politics and the party-political fray. It is the vacuum created by the failure of the mainstream parties of the centre-left and centre-right that calls forth this participation.

The media’s referring to the new Greek government as “far left” or “radical left” is just an intellectually lazy acquiescence in the language of the European political and policy establishment.

In truth, the position of Syriza is not so way out. Syriza is merely left-wing, whereas the mainstream European parties supposedly of the centre-left are no longer left-wing at all.

New Game to Play

I mentioned above that Varoufakis’s earliest academic research was concerned with game theory, albeit from a rather critical standpoint. He has already broken down the realities of one Greek election using game analogies.

Game theory as a method of research in the social sciences is first and foremost about the logic of strategic interaction between players. The situation that is being played out now, between Greece (as well as others of the “south”) and the political establishment in Europe, is without doubt a strategic situation. It is a game of high-stakes policy poker with the players on both sides, perhaps engaged in an element of bluff.

It is interesting that a game theory expert should find himself, now, at the centre of this situation. There is a great deal at stake, for the welfare of the people of Greece, the other high-debt States and Europe as a whole, as well as for the viability of the European Union and the euro.
Nobody's Right If Everybody's Wrong

What if they are all wrong?

While pondering that philosophical question I offer another musical tribute.



link if video does not play: Buffalo Springfield - For What It's Worth 1967

There's battle lines being drawn
Nobody's right if everybody's wrong
Young people speakin' their minds
A gettin' so much resistance from behind
Time we stop, hey, what's that sound?
Everybody look what's going down

Olive Branch Smashed

Greece's refusal of a bailout extension puts a time limit on matters. The existing bailout agreement expires late-February, less than a month from now.

Interesting, the refusal to accept an extension comes on this olive branch just a few hours ago: Europe Hints at Greek Bailout Extension.

Grexit in the Cards?

Unless cooler heads prevail, Grexit is in the cards.

Right now it appears as if neither side will back down. Calling the Troika "Rottenly Constructed" surely sets the tone for Greece.

"We’re prepared for any discussions at any time but the basis can’t be changed" sets the tone for Germany.

I wonder if the Greek position is on purpose.

Tsipras' claim that he wants Greece to stay on the euro. That helped get him elected. Is that how he really feels?

If not, then unless he gets nearly everything he wants, Grexit is all but assured. And if no agreement is reached, Tsipras has an easy fallback plan: Blame it on Germany and the much hated Troika.

Mish's Game Theory Math

  • Greece will be severely disadvantaged in the short term if it exits. But it will also recover faster.
  • If Greece stays in the eurozone, on Germany's terms, it will bleed to death for another decade or more.
  • Germany and the Eurozone have more to lose than Greece.
  • If Greece exits, the entire eurozone will blow sky high simply because of "exit math"

Exit Math

I wrote about exit math twice recently.


If Germany and the eurozone does not bend significantly, Greece may very well come to the conclusion it has little to lose and everything to gain in the long haul by telling the Troika to go to hell.

And that is a position I endorse even though I disagree with many of the overall policies of SYRIZA.

In the end, my analysis says the eurozone has far more to lose than Greece if a Grexit occurs. However, I highly doubt Germany realizes that.

Even if Germany does, it takes unanimous agreement from all 19 eurozone countries to revise the agreement. That's part of the math.

Place your bets.

In the meantime I once again repeat my warning to Greek citizens: Another Run on Greek Banks Begins; Get Out While You Still Can; Buy Gold

Addendum:

In regards to "rottenly constructed", reader Lefteris emailed ... The minute I heard Varoufakis say “σαθρή”, I figured it would be badly translated. It’s not a very common word. In context, this word correctly translates as “weak”, “not cohesive”. A more negative translation is “flimsy”, but that’s not what Vafourakis meant.

I made a correction above, changing the word "ruined" to "severely damaged" in this sentence:  Greece will be severely disadvantaged in the short term if it exits. But it will also recover faster. That said, hyperinflation is a possibility, and if that happens, the currency would indeed be ruined. The country itself wouldn't.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Financial Blogger Profile of "Mish" on Equities.Com

Daniel Banas at Equities.Com interviewed me last week via phone for their profile series on "the most distinct and noteworthy voices in the world of financial blogging."

The interview transcript follows. First a few words ...

I am honored to be on that list.

The interview kicked off with a question on how I got started. I have commented on this before, but the short story is I was out of work, hanging around stock message boards, and Bill McBride (Calculated Risk) created the first template to my blog. Bill had just started his own blog and within a few years we became two of the top three economic blogs in the US.   

Somewhere along the line Barry Rithotz at the Big Picture Blog discovered me, frequently linking back to my blog. I like to mention those who have helped me out, even if we have recent differences of opinion on various issues.

Of the three top bloggers (not counting syndicates like Paul Krugman, or multiperson sites), Calculated Risk or Ritholtz typically held the top spot, but on a few occasions, I did.

Tweet From Barry

Today, Barry was nice enough to tweet "Nice Profile of Mike Shedlock (@MishGEA) at Equities.com Global Financial Community shar.es/1omVEm".

Thanks Barry. Appreciated. Here is a link to Mish Profile on Equities.Com.

Interview with Daniel Banas

EQ: What inspired you to start Mish’s Global Economic Trend Analysis?

Mish: Actually, my first speech at Google was on that exact subject. My background is in Civil Engineering. I got a degree from the University of Illinois in ’76 and worked for two years as an engineer. I couldn’t stand it, so I started working for banks, on the computer programming side.

As an Assistant Vice President of Harris Bank, I’ve been through more bank mergers than anyone could imagine. I was at Chase when Chase and Chemical merged. I was at Harris Bank when the Bank of Montreal locked them out. I didn’t like the culture change when BMO came in. I left, went out on my own, and became a consultant.

But anyway, I lost my job after 9/11. Computer consulting contracts started really drying up after Y2K. There were just no jobs. If you had a job in banking, you kept it. But if you were a contractor, you couldn’t get one. At the time the economy was booming, and I was out of work for three years. All year round, I’d stalk message boards, and Silicon Investor happened to be one of them. I had the most popular message boards on Motley Fool and Silicon Investor, and one day, a guy named Calculated Risk, who was a poster on my board on Silicon Investor, contacted me.

EQ: Bill McBride at Calculate Risk?

Mish: Exactly. He said, “Hey, look at this. This is pretty cool. Google’s got these things out there called blogs. We can post our thoughts on them.” He actually created the first template for my blog, and a few years later, Calculated Risk and I were the #1 and #3 bloggers in the entire country. When he sent that email, he said, “Google has these things called blogs, and best of all, they’re free!”

When you’re out of work for three years, “free” is not a nicety, “free” is a requirement. That’s how it all started, and then things really took off for me with a series of extremely good calls that I made about the housing bust in 2005, 2006 and 2007.

Then, when oil hit $140/barrel, everyone thought interest rates were going to go to the freaking moon. They assumed we had this massive wave of inflation coming, but I said: Expect record low interest rates across the entire U.S. treasury yield curve. People thought I was out of my mind.

EQ: Wow. Was that a profitable call for you?

Mish: Actually, I didn’t make a cent off that call, because I still had a little money coming in as a result of being out of work for three years. Then, the housing bust hit and the next thing you know, Bernanke was slashing interest rates like mad. One could have bought hugely out of the money calls on interest rate futures, and made a million on a $10,000 bet. I didn’t even profit from my call, other than to gain notoriety. So, that was my start right there. I certainly have not gotten everything right with the stock market, but I think I’ve called the global economy better than anyone since 2005.

My proudest accolade in those regards – every year in December, The New York Times comes out with their top ten ideas of the year. It can be ten ideas on anything about healthcare, industry, education, finance, anything medical. Their #1 idea for 2010, called “Do-It-Yourself Macroeconomics” was about bloggers that called the global economy better than any economist did. They mentioned three people in the article: Calculated Risk, me, and Barry Ritholtz.

See New York Times 10th Annual Year in Ideas; #1 Idea: Do-It-Yourself Macroeconomics.

EQ: That’s rarefied air. When you called the housing bubble, and you called oil, what were you drawing upon to make those calls?

Mish: First off, I could see the housing crash. This was pretty easy. We had a bubble in housing, and then a crash. So I could see Bernanke lowering interest rates. To me, oil going up to $140 was just more icing on the cake.

We were shedding jobs like mad and the price of gas was going through the roof. Where was it going? To me, it was real simple. I was also one of the few that called deflation. Deflation is still my model, although I define it a little bit differently than other people. I had so many people mocking me, and now deflation is all everyone is talking about.

Yet, I’m still mocked for the call. All the hyperinflationists out there still think I’m a fool, but I don’t care. I called it right. One thing that I’ve gotten wrong – and it’s important to admit your mistakes – I absolutely thought there was close to no chance that the US stock market would get as high as it has in the last two years. I failed to see how much QE would benefit the US stock market, even if it didn’t in Europe and other places. That was my miss, but that’s actually more of a stock market miss than an economic miss. Regardless, my record is certainly far from perfect.

EQ: Where do you think the US stock market is heading now?

Mish: (laughs) I’ve been wrong for two years, but I’ll be happy to answer. I think we’re seeing the beginning of the end. One of the things I said was that the idea that Central Banks are in control is wildly wrong. I don’t think they’re in control of anything. The reaction from the European Central Bank is going to be interesting to watch. Everyone’s expecting this massive bazooka. Even if they deliver and actually shock the market with some announcement—which I don’t even think they’re going to do – it wouldn’t surprise me to see a knee-jerk reaction higher, and an immediate sell off all day once people realize the emperor has no clothes.

EQ: So you don’t think the ECB is going to do enough to pull Europe out of their funk?

Mish: No. Look at the market reaction when the Swiss National Bank removed the peg to everyone’s surprise. We saw it again with the action from the Bank of Canada. Europe is slowing – Germany’s going to go into recession and take all of Europe with it. Spain is sort of recovering, but Italy and France aren’t, so where is Europe headed once Germany goes down?

China is clearly slowing as well. That’s another thing that I got right. I picked up a lot of that from Michael Pettis. Some of the things I got right were just from reading – all these views are out there, and deciding who makes the most sense.

The Australian dollar collapsed. I’ve gotten that right, iron ore right, and the Canadian dollar right, all for the right reason (China was slowing far more than most thought). Still, sitting on the sidelines didn’t translate to any gains in the stock market. We lost clients, as did others like John Hussman, by trying to do the prudent thing.

EQ: What’s the lesson we can take away from all the contraction?

Mish: People are willing to forgive you when you lose money – when the stock markets are going down – but heaven forbid, don’t ever miss a rally! Of course, that philosophy encourages more speculation.

Here’s the key question: Do you not speculate and lose clients when overvalued markets soar for no fundamental reason, or do you speculate with the herds and lose on the way down? That’s the moral dilemma for investment managers. We saw that dilemma in 2000, in 2007, and again now. The problem compounds over time because the size of the bubbles (and the busts) have increased over time.

In a way, the central banks won. Bernanke won, for now. The cover of Time declared “We Saved the World,” but watch what happens when the U.S. stock market goes down again.

In regards to the strength of the economy, every economist that Bloomberg surveyed said US interest rates would rise in 2014. I said they’d fall, and so did Lacy Hunt at Van Hoisington, manager of a $4 billion dollar US treasury fund. We both got the economic call correctly, but stocks soared anyway.

A lot of what I do is just to sort through all the news and try to figure out “Who is it that I want to believe and who is it I don’t?”

Sometimes I disagree with all of them. I have a disagreement right now with Michael Pettis on the global glut savings thesis, although I agree with him on nearly everything else. At some point, you’ve got to be your own person.

EQ: With so many differing opinions, what differentiates Mish’s Global Economic Trend Analysis from other financial blogs out there?

Mish: That’s easy – unlike Zero Hedge, my blog is just me. One advantage of just being me, and not taking a lot of guest posts, is that I provide a consistent point-of-view. That doesn’t mean I’m incapable of changing my mind – sometimes I do, but not that often.

I don’t post a lot of conspiracy theories – I don’t believe in them. That would be something that Zero Hedge might do. One day he might be talking hyperinflation, and the next day deflation. Some of the opinions are his and some are guest posts, so you start trying to be everything to everyone and throwing conspiracy theories on top of all of it – there’s no consistent point-of-view.

Calculated Risk does provide a consistent point-of-view. But his focus is mainly on the U.S. and housing. I go far more into Europe and Asia than most do. I also exchange emails all the time with a number of globally prominent economists, so I would say that’s a differentiation.

EQ: What general theses can visitors to your blog expect to read about these days?

Mish: Readers can expect commentary on the slowing global economy, global interest rates, the potential breakup of the Eurozone and what that may mean, and valuations of equities and various bonds.

I like gold. I like the miners. I’ve been on the wrong side of that trade actually for a few years, although I really, really like the recent action. I like Japanese equities, but hedged for a plunge in the yen. I think that trade has tremendous potential. Unlike the US, there’s a very decent chance that Japan goes into hyperinflation.

If that happens, that long Japanese equities but short the yen could literally be the trade of the century. Whether it plays out that way or not, and what timeframe, I don’t know. It all depends on how insane Abenomics in Japan gets.

EQ: Where do you stand on gold?

Mish: In regards to gold, it’s the same way. Most people don’t realize this, but gold traditionally does poorly in periods of disinflation. It does very well in periods of credit stress. It does well in periods of stagflation. It does very well in periods of deflation.

What I sense happening now is the global economy is shifting from disinflation to a deflationary bias.

People think that gold is some kind of inflation hedge, but it’s really not. Gold fell from $800 in 1980 to $250 in 2000 with inflation every step of the way. What happened in that period? The answer is falling interest rates, all along the way. That’s an environment in which gold does pretty badly.

In 2001 we started to see gold react to Fed deflation fighting moves. Gold soared along with everything else. Then, starting in 2011 or so, with ECB president Mario Draghi’s “Whatever it takes” statement we had this renewed and unfounded faith in central banks. Gold plunged as it normally does, when people have great faith in central banks.

Since early November, the thesis that central banks are in control is coming into question once again. Gold has been rising in every major currency, including the dollar, and especially the Euro.

When Jim Grant was once asked 'how should one value gold?', he proposed that the value of gold probably is '1/N', with 'N' standing for the faith people have in the monetary authority. The more this faith declines, the higher the price of gold will go.

My prediction for this year was that gold would rise with the U.S. dollar in the beginning of the year, and then soar in the latter half of this year, when all of these bets that the U.S. will hike because of a strengthening US economy go down the drain. Perhaps they get in a hike or two, then what?

EQ: That would go against common wisdom, but it does seem to make sense. Do you have one specific, overarching philosophy to investing?

Mish: Here’s some general advice: Don’t leverage. Be prepared to lose your job. Have six months, preferably a year’s worth, of money in cash in case you do lose your job. Once again everyone thinks “cash is trash”. When everyone or nearly everyone takes that view, look out below. 

Wait for better investment opportunities. It’s far easier to make up for lost opportunities than to recover from huge stock market losses. And finally, consider having 10 to 25% of your assets in gold (but no more than you can sleep with). Some people have higher tolerances than others.

That’s my whole thesis here right now. People don’t have to like shorts. They don’t need to do short. Even if they think the market’s going to go down, a lot of times, bears lose in bear markets. Sometimes the winner is he who loses least, so take some chips off the table and reduce your risk.

End Interview

Thanks to Bill McBride, Barry Ritholtz, Minyanville, Heinz Blasnik (the person who taught me Austrian economics), Michael Pettis (who taught me everything I know about trade), Steve Keen (for debt deflation theories), Daniel Banas, and everyone else who helped me along the way.

If you think I missed your name, I probably did. Apologies offered and mentally add you to the list cited.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Eurozone, Including Germany, in Deflation; Strange Times for Denmark, Deutschland and EU

Eurostat released HICP Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices statistics today.

In spite of promising that deflation would not hit again, here we are, and for the second month too.
Euro area annual inflation is expected to be -0.6% in January 2015, down from -0.2% in December 2014 according to a flash estimate from Eurostat, the statistical office of the European Union. This negative rate for euro area annual inflation in January is driven by the fall in energy prices (-8.9%, compared with -6.3% in December). Prices are also expected to fall for food, alcohol & tobacco (-0.1%, compared with 0.0% in December) and non-energy industrial goods (-0.1%, compared with 0.0% in December). Only prices for services are expected to increase (1.0%, compared with 1.2% in December).
HICP vs. Year Ago



click on any chart for sharper image

HICP Components by Month



HIPC 2005 to 2015 History



Even Germany in Deflation

The BBC reports Denmark, Deutschland and deflation: strange times for EU.
New official figures from Germany show that prices have fallen, by 0.5%, over the previous 12 months.

Meanwhile the Danish Central Bank has cut one of its main interest rates for the second time in a week.

It is a rate paid to commercial banks for excess funds parked at the central bank. It was already below zero. Now it is even lower - minus 0.5%.

It means banks have to pay to leave money at the central bank, above certain specified limits.

Negative interest rates are another example of the strange financial world that has emerged in the aftermath of the financial crisis.

What is the connection between falling prices - or deflation - in Germany and the Danish central bank? It is about Denmark's 35-year policy of tying its currency, the krone, to the euro, and before that to the German mark.

That peg has come under increasing strain as the European Central Bank, the ECB, has taken steps to combat deflation.
Denmark Peg

How long will Denmark be able to keep its peg to the euro?

The BBC says "Denmark is a smaller financial system and it is not an established magnet for internationally mobile money in the way that Switzerland is." The presumption is Denmark can keep its peg because its not an international player.

I say watch what happens if hedge funds start monkeying around with the Danish krone in size. We could easily see another Swiss-style event, albeit with smaller repercussions given that the krone is not the same hotbed of foreign mortgage obligations as Switzerland.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Ec 10 Guest Lectures


Above are the seven guest lecturers for ec 10 this spring. How many do you recognize?  A first-class econonerd would recognize them all.

Hint: Their initials are MF, GG, AA, AS, JS, JS, and LS.

29 Ocak 2015 Perşembe

Marine Le Pen Soars Into Lead in French Presidential Polls for 2017; Don't Worry, Nothing Can Possibly Go Wrong

In spite of the Charlie Hebdo murders that raised the popularity of French president Francois Hollande and his staff, Les Echos reports than in the 2017 presidential election anti-euro candidate Marine Le Pen in the 1st Round Lead With Nearly 30% of the Vote.
According to an IFOP 2017 presidential poll released Thursday, Marine Le Pen would come out clearly in the lead if the first round of presidential elections was held on Sunday.

Le Pen would get 29 to 31% of the vote. No rival would exceed 23%. Nicolas Sarkozy, Manuel Valls, and Alain Juppé, each have around 23%. François Hollande would get 21%.

Francois Bayrou would obtain 7 to 9%, Mélenchon 8%, Cécile Duflot and Nicolas Dupont-Aignan between 3 and 4% and the far left between 2 and 3%.

Prime Minister Valls would do better than Francois Hollande, with 23% of the vote.
Too Early Too Worry

Don't worry about 2017 until December 31, 2016. Instead worry about Greece and especially Spain. Spanish elections are scheduled for November of 2015.

On January 12, in Zugzwang! I noted the Spanish radical left party Podemos surges into lead. That surge adds another contagion wrinkle given the Podemos "Economic Manifesto" Calls for Debt Restructuring, Spain to Abandon the "Euro Trap".

"Spaniards should be aware that it is physically impossible that they can pursue policies that meet the national interest, within the euro as it is designed. The euro was conceived as a real trap, but nowhere is it written that people have to accept it ."

Inquiring minds may also wish to consider the Incredible Populist Positions in Podemos' "Economic Manifesto".

Don't Worry, Everything Under Control

In retrospect, it appears there may be too many things to worry about. So instead, sit back and relax. Repeat after me ... Nothing can possibly go wrong because central bankers are in complete control.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Conscription of People, Cars, Businesses in Ukraine for Mindless Slaughter; Entire Villages Leave to Avoid Servitude; Hop on the Bus Gus

Ukrainians Fighting Ukrainians

Forced military conscription (slavery is a better word) imposed on citizens of Ukraine has reached new heights recently.

The government in Kiev now demands those forced into slavery to hand over their cars for military use. As one might expect, avoidance of needless military slaughter has also reached new heights.

Before we get to those stories, I have a video to share. It is in Russian, but with English subtitles. I am told by reader Jacob Dreizin the translation is essentially correct, but a couple things were translated too literally.

I do offer this warning. The video is graphic and it does contain a lot of harsh language. The video is about captured Ukrainian POWs on a fool's mission to retake the Donetsk airport. After about 12 minutes or so it gets gruesome, the beginning is not so bad.

Warning aside, I recommend watching the video, entirely. Watch the scenes where locals confront the Ukrainian POWs. The video accurately portrays Ukrainians fighting Ukrainians, not Ukrainians fighting Russians.

Ukrainian POW's Face NAF Commander Givi and the Fury of Donetsk Residents



Link if Video Does not Play: UAF Storms Donetsk Airport and Gets Asses Handed to them by NAF.

Want a translation to Spanish, German, Dutch, Danish, or French? Go to Information Clearing House. That is where I picked up the Video.

Translation Corrections

  • Around 4:41, "And if we dropped on Kiev such mines?" should be, "And if we dropped such mortar rounds on Kiev?"
  • At 5:22, a more accurate translation would be "You'll rebuild our city."
  • Around 8:30 to 8:57,  "trucks" should be "armored vehicles (BMPs or BTRs)."
  • At 12:11, "respected" should be translated as "my good fellow."
  • At 19:31, should be more like "...his hands go lame", not his "...hands dry out."  They are translating too literally.
  • At the end, the security guy is just joking about hanging him, obviously that's out of the question. These POWs will be traded for NAF POWs.

Rebel Propaganda?

Is that video rebel propaganda? You bet. Is it effective? Yep. And it's also the truth. Kiev routinely sends soldiers on fool's missions hoping for a miracle. Instead it's been slaughter after slaughter. 

"No Regular Units of the Russian Army in Ukraine"

An important admission came today from Ukrainian military chief of staff, General Viktor Muzhenko, at a press briefing: "No Regular Units of the Russian Army in Ukraine".

Read link above for that statement. The title is different.

The admission was repeated by another Ukrainian news agency as well. Please consider Involvement of Russian Army in Illegal Armed Formation in Donbas.

Here's an exact (unedited) translation. Meaning is crystal clear.
Armed Forces General Staff has information about the participation of soldiers of the army of the Russian Federation in the conflict in eastern Ukraine.

This was announced during a briefing Armed Forces Chief of Staff Lieutenant General Victor Muzhenko.

"To date, we have only the involvement of some members of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation, Russian citizens as part of illegal armed groups in the fighting. Fighting units of the regular Russian army today we're also not. We have enough forces and means in order to inflict a final defeat even illegal armed formation "- he said.
Video Translation

Jacob Dreizin offers a better translation of the video in the first link.
"At this time, we have only proof of participation of individual members of the Russian Federation armed forces and Russian Federation citizens in the illegal armed formations (and) in military operations. Also, at this time we are not engaged in military operations against regular Russian army units."

By "illegal armed formations", he is referring to the DNR/LNR.
Even if one believes there are "Russian Regulars" in Ukraine, its probably a number of "trainers" not the alleged 15,000.

For further discussion, please see Attack on Mariupol Begins; 7,000-8,000 Ukrainian Forces Nearly Encircled in Northern Cauldron; US Sends Army Trainers.

Conscription of People, Cars in Ukraine for Mindless Slaughter

The mindless slaughter should be obvious from previous videos I have posted. So let's move on to a another topic: new slavery (conscription) requirements.

Odessa Region "Recruits" Ordered to Quit Jobs and Turn Over Cars

Via translation please consider Odessa Region Recruits Ordered to Quit Jobs and Turn Over Cars.
In the Belgorod-Dniester district of Odessa region reserve servicemen were banned from leaving the area. The ban applies even to those who have not yet received a summons.

Businesses commissar requires organizations to dismiss employees receiving a summons and to ensure the attendance of recruits at the points specified in the mobilization orders.

In addition, citizens, businesses and organizations required to hand over to the military conscription office all serviceable vehicles.
Mobilization 2015: In Transcarpathia Entire Villages Go Abroad

Here's another story on the same subject: Mobilization 2015: In Transcarpathia Entire Villages Go Abroad
In 2015, only 6% of persons subject to mobilization, are volunteers according to Oleg Boyko, Main Directorate of Mobilization. This compares to 20% in the first wave of mobilization in 2014.

"The biggest problem in mobilization activities in the Transcarpathian region," - he said.

According to Boyko, sometimes whole villages leave the country. "There is a report of the Chairman of the Kosovo village of the district, according to which the local population has hired two buses and drove them to the Russian Federation."

In the Ternopil region, there continues a mass escape of the male population abroad. "Strange as this may seem, people flee to the Russian Federation", said Boyko.
Mindless!

"Strange as this may seem, people flee to the Russian Federation", said Boyko. It's only strange if you are a mindless idiot.

Military Servicemen Massively Flee Abroad

Also via translation, please consider Military Servicemen Massively Flee Abroad

The article relates to what Oleg Boyko, chief of the Draft Directorate of the Main Directorate for Defense and Mobilization Planning of the Ukrainian General Staff, said at a meeting with President Poroshenko's office yesterday:
A representative of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine appealed to the government to formulate a bill to prevent citizens of Ukraine from leaving the country.

In particular, he suggested that the Government develop a change in the law "On the departure of Ukrainian citizens abroad, subject to conscription in a special period."

A representative of the General Staff proposed to revise downward the list of enterprises, institutions and organizations that are exempt from equipment mobilization for the needs of the army.

He noted the need to amend border crossing rules due to the fact that during the current mobilization phase, entire villages go abroad to avoid conscription. In particular, they head to the territory of the Russian Federation.

According to the Ternopil military commissariat (draft board) "the population of Ternopol province is quitting their jobs en masse, with the goal of avoiding the draft. Draft eligibles are also leaving the country en masse. In the Ternopil region, two buses of the local population went to the Russian Federation."

There are also problems with the mobilization of equipment for the needs of the army.
My Advice

Here's my belated advice to those living in Ukraine: "Get the F* out of Ukraine. Now!"

Small Price Theory Revisited

I wrote about the "small price theory" on August 8, 2014, in "Small Price to Pay".

It seems the "small price" keeps getting bigger, and bigger, and bigger.

Jacob Dreizin wrote today ... Maybe your "Small Price to Pay" friend would like to come to Ukraine and take the place of all these draft dodgers? Surely his life would be a small price to pay to keep the world safe for democracy. Instead, does he have any kids to spare?

That's the problem isn't it? As reader Bran from Spain once emailed, "Proponents of the small price theory never really have much at stake. Everyone else does."

It's pretty damn clear those in Ukraine whose sons and daughters are forced to fight a stupid war have decided "this ain't no small price!" Meanwhile, those in the US who manufacture weapons and hope to send more of them to Ukraine for a profit are the biggest proponents of the "small price" theory.

My friend is not in the latter category, and he was staunchly against the Vietnam war. Rather, he simply is not thinking clearly now, idealistically hoping for some of global "UN-sponsored united world peace concept" (my phrasing not his), that must be defended at all costs, presumably even nuclear war with Russia.

Hop on the Bus Gus

In honor of Ukrainians citizens smart enough to disavow the "small price" theory and willing to tell their government to F* off, I offer this musical tribute.



Link if Video does not Play: 50-Ways Paul Simon

Hop on the bus Guss
Don't need to discuss much
Just drop off the keys Lee
And get yourself free!

No one has the right to own you. No one. No government. Ever!

To disagree with the above is to support forced slavery.

This War is Over

The Vietnam war ended when public support turned against it, even though fighting continued long after.

The same applies here. The war is over. Hearts and minds have been lost along with the will to fight. Ukraine is split in two, barring a major military intervention by the US.

Even though the war is over, the fighting can continue. How much longer the battles go on now depends on the US and IMF.

  1. The US can fund the bloodshed for a while longer and so can the IMF. US war-mongers may decide no price is too high to pay, even to the absurd point of engaging Russia directly.
  2. The US and IMF can force true peace negotiations on Kiev with a partition or federation of the country. But, what may have been acceptable to the separatists and Russia six months ago may no longer be so.

Either way, Ukraine is never going to be a single country again. Such is the madness of arbitrarily drawing borders with no regard to cultural, political, or religious beliefs.

The war is over. Kiev lost, even with the backing of the US. Let the peace process begin before more lives are lost and more needless destruction occurs.

I authorize translation and republication of this individual article, to any language, on any site, as long as it contains a link back to this article.
 
Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Bravery = Stupidity? Alibaba Takes on the PRC

In a fight between Alibaba and the PRC, I'd bet on the PRC to win.
 There's interesting news out today on Alibaba, China's giant business-to-business (B2B), business-to-consumer (B2C), and consumer-to-consumer (C2C) Internet giant. Just in September of last year, it supposedly set the record for the world's biggest initial public offering (IPO), making Jack Ma and company very wealthy people. I can only imagine that they were overjoyed then. But than was then and this is now: Alibaba stock is taking a beating since its earnings fell well below expectations in 3Q 2014. Alibaba now being a global company, its stock is sensitive to market sentiment the world over even if its reporting is a quarter later than that of US companies.

Partly it's bad timing as Alibaba has gone into forays like mobile services as China's economy has slowed down:
Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. revenue missed estimates as the e-commerce giant’s push into mobile curbed its advertising sales growth. The shares fell. Revenue was 26.2 billion yuan ($4.2 billion) in the third quarter, compared with the 27.6 billion-yuan average of 25 analyst estimates. Ads on mobile phones generate less money than on desktop computers because of smaller screens, and transactions on the Tmall platform grew at a slower pace, the Hangzhou-based company said Thursday. 
Even if its most recent results have been well below market expectations, the Chinese government has undoubtedly treated its homegrown technology firms better than foreign ones. The objective, of course, is to encourage the emergence of PRC-based alternatives to the likes of Amazon, e-Bay, Google, etc. However, Alibaba now alleges that heavy-handed tactics government regulators have more frequently used on Western firms are now being applied to it:
Alibaba, which connects consumers and businesses across its platforms, has a “credibility crisis” fueled by its failure to crack down on shady merchants, counterfeit goods, bribery and misleading promotions, the Chinese government said Wednesday. The report by the State Administration for Industry & Commerce [SAIC] accused Alibaba of allowing merchants to operate without required business licenses, to run unauthorized stores that co-opt famous brands and sell fake wine and handbags.

 “The scale of the revelations could leave Alibaba with substantial reputational damage,” said Cyrus Mewawalla, managing director of London-based CM Research. “We still see several risks in this stock that may in the coming months overshadow the earnings growth.” 
Apparently, Alibaba's leadership is not taking SAIC's clampdown in stride, accusing their own government of heavy-handedness:
Vice Chairman Joseph Tsai criticized the findings during Thursday’s earnings conference call and reaffirmed a commitment to ethical business practices. The company decided to file a complaint against the SAIC official who oversaw a meeting with Alibaba representatives in July to discuss the claims.

“We believe the flawed approach taken in the report, and the tactic of releasing a so-called ‘white paper’ specifically targeting us, was so unfair that we felt compelled to take the extraordinary step of preparing a formal complaint to the SAIC,” Tsai said.
Alibaba said in its IPO prospectus there were allegations in the past, and likely would be in the future, that the company’s platforms were selling goods that were counterfeit or infringed on other copyrights including music. The company takes a “very draconian” approach to counterfeits, Tsai said in an interview with Bloomberg Television on Thursday. “There’s nothing more important than the trust consumers have in our platform,” he said.
Now this is far more interesting than missed earnings: Alibaba complaining of unfair treatment from its government. My general take is that the Chinese government, which otherwise is a large champion of Alibaba, is wary of its forays into telecoms, financial services and what else have you since over-diversification may be an unwise strategy at a time the Chinese economy is being cooled down. Of course, Chinese government officials also have to consider the interests of other PRC industrialists whose turf Alibaba is muscling into. Hence, the government may be giving a not-so-veiled message that Alibaba should not expand so much so quickly into other industries and areas.

Moreover, since when did the Chinese government care about copyright infringement on a large scale? It's often been treated as nothing more than an American whine. The timing, target and complaint are triply suspect. Unless the Communist Party leadership really wanted to, this would probably not have happened under normal circumstances. Someone really wants get a message across to Alibaba that it has to toe the (Party) line.

Besides, biting the hand that feeds is usually an unwise strategy. PRC leaders may feel they have to knock some sense into Alibaba since they may be holding themselves in too high regard relative to other Chinese businesses and must be knocked down a peg or two. The nail that sticks out gets hammered down: wham-wham-wham!

UPDATE 1: Forbes has more on the story, noting that there have been several high-profile incidents where noveau riche businesspersons have taken on the mighty PRC and lost badly. These appear towards the end of the story; also see this:
By Thursday both sides backed down a little, with the SAIC quietly removing the White Paper [on Alibaba's allegedly lax attitudes towards counterfeit goods] from its website and Alibaba taking down the initial rebuff directed at the director. Yet this gesture doesn’t mean Alibaba is giving in – during the earnings call on Thursday, executive vice chairman Joe Tsai said that the company was preparing to file a formal complaint. Alibaba shares plunged 8.8% in the aftermath due to investors’ concerns over slowed growth, political risks and lack of information transparency.

As an article reprinted by Xinhua News Agency stated, this incident is “the most heated confrontation between the government and an enterprise in the era of Internet economy” and may prove to “have milestone implications.” Alibaba, with its prominence in China’s internet ecosystem, global status and not the least, politically connected investors, may be uniquely positioned to challenge a state-level government entity.
UPDATE 2: Quartz has a translation of the now-famous White Paper which SAIC has since taken down. Here's an excerpt:
Poor supervision on products information. On the platform of Taobao Net and Alibaba, products and service information shows there is an invasion of others exclusive rights to use registered trademarks, trade of substandard quality products, and trade of products without lawful import sources, are banned by the state, or are pyramid schemes.
UPDATE 3: Alibaba may also be facing heat Stateside over non-disclosure of the PRC's investigation concerning its tolerance of counterfeiting.

Reduced: Huge Labradorite Cocktail Ring

Gorgeous, huge labradorite cocktail ring. It's faceted to pick up light from all angle. If you're not familiar with labradorite, it's a sort of brown-grey with veins of blue and a sort of rainbow effect. A spectacular stone that goes with anything.

Set in Gold Vermeil. Size 7-7.5.  I just don't find myself wearing statement jewelry, and would love someone to get to enjoy this!

Materials: Labradorite and Gold Vermeil
Size: 7 (would fit 7.5)
Asking: $50 Now 40 plus $3 shipping

I'm selling a few jewelry items, and am happy to combine shipping if you want to buy more than one.

If interested, leave your name in the comments or email jessiegaskell@gmail.com. Listing ends one week from today.