We are used now to playing with plastic, yet we still hold cash. The fact is that there are still plenty of occasion where only cash can be used for transactions, either because the amount is very small, or because for some reason the merchant does not want to accept plastic. Not infrequently, it is because of the fear of a paper trail, or rather an electronic trail, or because of some tax avoidance. The fact that plastic money discourages the latter should be seen as beneficial, right?
Victor Olajide thinks that is not necessarily the case when the informal sector is substantial. Taking the example of Nigeria, he points out that if the informal sector cannot use cash anymore, then this could have strong implications for banking, as reserve requirements rely on deposits, and those could go missing. That does not seem to be a major problem to me, as reserve requirements can be changed or redefined. I find more problematic that the Central Bank of Nigeria is pushing for a cashless economy while many of the market participants simply do not have the means to tool up for it. I think there are more important issues to tackle in Nigeria than going cashless.
6 Haziran 2012 Çarşamba
5 Haziran 2012 Salı
Barro on the Slow Recovery
Robert says incentives are the key:
Consider the expansion of social-safety-net programs, including food stamps, unemployment insurance, Medicaid (prospectively) and housing and mortgage programs. In a study published last month by the National Bureau of Economic Research, University of Chicago economist Casey Mulligan observed that, because these programs were means-tested (falling or ending as income rises), expanding them raised the effective marginal tax rate on labor income.
Specifically, Mr. Mulligan estimates that the effective marginal tax rate for low-income households went from around 40% in 2007, before the recession started, to about 48% in 2009, at the start of the recovery. Thus, while these programs may be attractive from the standpoint of assisting poor families, they dilute incentives to work.
To achieve a real recovery, government policy should focus on individual incentives to work, produce and invest. Central here are tax rates and regulations, including especially clarity about future policies. In a successful policy package, the government would get its fiscal house in order and make meaningful long-term reforms to entitlement programs and the tax structure.
How did online journals change the economics literature?
Scientific publication is not the same as it was, now that we can easily access the literature over the Internet. No more trips to the library, much fewer waits for interlibrary loans, and no more chasing who took or misplaced the volume in the racks. But did all this change anything in the way we publish our results?
This is what Timo Boppart and Kevin E. Staub study by looking at the diversity of topics covered in journals and how the availability of on-line publication would have changed that. The idea is that on-line publication allows to discover and read more material, and one may in particular stray away from the usual topics. No doubt about that. But I wonder why Boppart and Straub have this focus on journals. After all, working papers is where its at in Economics, and journal readership has not really increased, I believe. The treatment variable is the share of cited articles available on-line the year before publication. This seems so wrong. There is no way it takes only one year from the literature search to the print issue. Not in Economics, where I would say it is a minimum three years, with really rare cases below that. In fact, a good share of mine took more than a year from final acceptance to actual publication. Then, what about working papers? This is what people read, not articles.
This is what Timo Boppart and Kevin E. Staub study by looking at the diversity of topics covered in journals and how the availability of on-line publication would have changed that. The idea is that on-line publication allows to discover and read more material, and one may in particular stray away from the usual topics. No doubt about that. But I wonder why Boppart and Straub have this focus on journals. After all, working papers is where its at in Economics, and journal readership has not really increased, I believe. The treatment variable is the share of cited articles available on-line the year before publication. This seems so wrong. There is no way it takes only one year from the literature search to the print issue. Not in Economics, where I would say it is a minimum three years, with really rare cases below that. In fact, a good share of mine took more than a year from final acceptance to actual publication. Then, what about working papers? This is what people read, not articles.
Summers on Quantitative Easing
Larry is skeptical:
There is also an oddity in this renewed emphasis on quantitative easing. The essential aim of such policies is to shorten the debt held by the public or issued by the consolidated public sector comprising both the government and central bank. Any rational chief financial officer in the private sector would see this as a moment to extend debt maturities and lock in low rates – exactly the opposite of what central banks are doing. In the U.S. Treasury, for example, discussions of debt-management policy have had exactly this emphasis. But the Treasury does not alone control the maturity of debt when the central bank is active in all debt markets.
4 Haziran 2012 Pazartesi
The origin of de-unionization in the United States
For better or worse, union are particularly weak in the United States. This was not always so. Why unions declined is not limited to Reaganism which merely accelerated a trend already present in the data. The difficulty is to explain this trend which is for example only present in some other countries and nowhere as pronounced.
Emin Dinlersoz and Jeremy Greenwood explore whether this has to do with the distribution of income, at least in the US. Indeed, over the past century and a half, union membership rates followed an inverted U-shape, while the income share of the top 10% did the opposite. Greenwood and Dinlersoz think that both can be explained by the evolution of skill-biased technical change: basically, while the assembly-line was the main means of production, unskilled labor garnered a higher higher income share and unions were strong, but both decline since as information technology became important. Nice story, but I wonder whether it can apply to more observations (i.e., countries). Also, I wonder whether the timing of events works out. Indeed, the ratio of of unskilled to skilled workers went into a tailspin starting in 1945, while union membership started decreasing only in 1955 and the income distribution started getting more skewed in the 1980's.
Emin Dinlersoz and Jeremy Greenwood explore whether this has to do with the distribution of income, at least in the US. Indeed, over the past century and a half, union membership rates followed an inverted U-shape, while the income share of the top 10% did the opposite. Greenwood and Dinlersoz think that both can be explained by the evolution of skill-biased technical change: basically, while the assembly-line was the main means of production, unskilled labor garnered a higher higher income share and unions were strong, but both decline since as information technology became important. Nice story, but I wonder whether it can apply to more observations (i.e., countries). Also, I wonder whether the timing of events works out. Indeed, the ratio of of unskilled to skilled workers went into a tailspin starting in 1945, while union membership started decreasing only in 1955 and the income distribution started getting more skewed in the 1980's.
2 Haziran 2012 Cumartesi
1 Haziran 2012 Cuma
The value of human capital
How much is human capital worth? This is an important question when one this about the amount of resources that goes into education, both from public and private funds, as well as the substantial opportunity cost of attending school instead of working. The traditional approach is to compare the labor income of people with different levels of education and then come up with a return on investment or more often a return of one additional year of schooling.
Mark Huggett and Greg Kaplan take a different approach. They consider human capital to be an asset and decompose it into a bond (with fixed return), a stock (with variable return) and a residual. This becomes then a standard asset pricing problem. Then taking the labor income flow as a representation of the dividends from this portfolio, they can infer its composition, and how it changes over time. Using data for US males, it turns out the value of human capital is much lower than previously estimated. This is because the stochastic discount factor covaries negatively with earnings (they take into account capital income as well). Also, the bond component dominates the portfolio, especially for the college educated, which is not surprising given the large variance of income and employment among the less educated. What is more surprising, I think, is that stock market and human capital returns are not correlated. I would have thought that the business cycle would have had a strong impact there.
Mark Huggett and Greg Kaplan take a different approach. They consider human capital to be an asset and decompose it into a bond (with fixed return), a stock (with variable return) and a residual. This becomes then a standard asset pricing problem. Then taking the labor income flow as a representation of the dividends from this portfolio, they can infer its composition, and how it changes over time. Using data for US males, it turns out the value of human capital is much lower than previously estimated. This is because the stochastic discount factor covaries negatively with earnings (they take into account capital income as well). Also, the bond component dominates the portfolio, especially for the college educated, which is not surprising given the large variance of income and employment among the less educated. What is more surprising, I think, is that stock market and human capital returns are not correlated. I would have thought that the business cycle would have had a strong impact there.
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6 Haziran 2012 Çarşamba
Cashless banking in informal economies
We are used now to playing with plastic, yet we still hold cash. The fact is that there are still plenty of occasion where only cash can be used for transactions, either because the amount is very small, or because for some reason the merchant does not want to accept plastic. Not infrequently, it is because of the fear of a paper trail, or rather an electronic trail, or because of some tax avoidance. The fact that plastic money discourages the latter should be seen as beneficial, right?
Victor Olajide thinks that is not necessarily the case when the informal sector is substantial. Taking the example of Nigeria, he points out that if the informal sector cannot use cash anymore, then this could have strong implications for banking, as reserve requirements rely on deposits, and those could go missing. That does not seem to be a major problem to me, as reserve requirements can be changed or redefined. I find more problematic that the Central Bank of Nigeria is pushing for a cashless economy while many of the market participants simply do not have the means to tool up for it. I think there are more important issues to tackle in Nigeria than going cashless.
Victor Olajide thinks that is not necessarily the case when the informal sector is substantial. Taking the example of Nigeria, he points out that if the informal sector cannot use cash anymore, then this could have strong implications for banking, as reserve requirements rely on deposits, and those could go missing. That does not seem to be a major problem to me, as reserve requirements can be changed or redefined. I find more problematic that the Central Bank of Nigeria is pushing for a cashless economy while many of the market participants simply do not have the means to tool up for it. I think there are more important issues to tackle in Nigeria than going cashless.
5 Haziran 2012 Salı
Barro on the Slow Recovery
Robert says incentives are the key:
Consider the expansion of social-safety-net programs, including food stamps, unemployment insurance, Medicaid (prospectively) and housing and mortgage programs. In a study published last month by the National Bureau of Economic Research, University of Chicago economist Casey Mulligan observed that, because these programs were means-tested (falling or ending as income rises), expanding them raised the effective marginal tax rate on labor income.
Specifically, Mr. Mulligan estimates that the effective marginal tax rate for low-income households went from around 40% in 2007, before the recession started, to about 48% in 2009, at the start of the recovery. Thus, while these programs may be attractive from the standpoint of assisting poor families, they dilute incentives to work.
To achieve a real recovery, government policy should focus on individual incentives to work, produce and invest. Central here are tax rates and regulations, including especially clarity about future policies. In a successful policy package, the government would get its fiscal house in order and make meaningful long-term reforms to entitlement programs and the tax structure.
How did online journals change the economics literature?
Scientific publication is not the same as it was, now that we can easily access the literature over the Internet. No more trips to the library, much fewer waits for interlibrary loans, and no more chasing who took or misplaced the volume in the racks. But did all this change anything in the way we publish our results?
This is what Timo Boppart and Kevin E. Staub study by looking at the diversity of topics covered in journals and how the availability of on-line publication would have changed that. The idea is that on-line publication allows to discover and read more material, and one may in particular stray away from the usual topics. No doubt about that. But I wonder why Boppart and Straub have this focus on journals. After all, working papers is where its at in Economics, and journal readership has not really increased, I believe. The treatment variable is the share of cited articles available on-line the year before publication. This seems so wrong. There is no way it takes only one year from the literature search to the print issue. Not in Economics, where I would say it is a minimum three years, with really rare cases below that. In fact, a good share of mine took more than a year from final acceptance to actual publication. Then, what about working papers? This is what people read, not articles.
This is what Timo Boppart and Kevin E. Staub study by looking at the diversity of topics covered in journals and how the availability of on-line publication would have changed that. The idea is that on-line publication allows to discover and read more material, and one may in particular stray away from the usual topics. No doubt about that. But I wonder why Boppart and Straub have this focus on journals. After all, working papers is where its at in Economics, and journal readership has not really increased, I believe. The treatment variable is the share of cited articles available on-line the year before publication. This seems so wrong. There is no way it takes only one year from the literature search to the print issue. Not in Economics, where I would say it is a minimum three years, with really rare cases below that. In fact, a good share of mine took more than a year from final acceptance to actual publication. Then, what about working papers? This is what people read, not articles.
Summers on Quantitative Easing
Larry is skeptical:
There is also an oddity in this renewed emphasis on quantitative easing. The essential aim of such policies is to shorten the debt held by the public or issued by the consolidated public sector comprising both the government and central bank. Any rational chief financial officer in the private sector would see this as a moment to extend debt maturities and lock in low rates – exactly the opposite of what central banks are doing. In the U.S. Treasury, for example, discussions of debt-management policy have had exactly this emphasis. But the Treasury does not alone control the maturity of debt when the central bank is active in all debt markets.
4 Haziran 2012 Pazartesi
The origin of de-unionization in the United States
For better or worse, union are particularly weak in the United States. This was not always so. Why unions declined is not limited to Reaganism which merely accelerated a trend already present in the data. The difficulty is to explain this trend which is for example only present in some other countries and nowhere as pronounced.
Emin Dinlersoz and Jeremy Greenwood explore whether this has to do with the distribution of income, at least in the US. Indeed, over the past century and a half, union membership rates followed an inverted U-shape, while the income share of the top 10% did the opposite. Greenwood and Dinlersoz think that both can be explained by the evolution of skill-biased technical change: basically, while the assembly-line was the main means of production, unskilled labor garnered a higher higher income share and unions were strong, but both decline since as information technology became important. Nice story, but I wonder whether it can apply to more observations (i.e., countries). Also, I wonder whether the timing of events works out. Indeed, the ratio of of unskilled to skilled workers went into a tailspin starting in 1945, while union membership started decreasing only in 1955 and the income distribution started getting more skewed in the 1980's.
Emin Dinlersoz and Jeremy Greenwood explore whether this has to do with the distribution of income, at least in the US. Indeed, over the past century and a half, union membership rates followed an inverted U-shape, while the income share of the top 10% did the opposite. Greenwood and Dinlersoz think that both can be explained by the evolution of skill-biased technical change: basically, while the assembly-line was the main means of production, unskilled labor garnered a higher higher income share and unions were strong, but both decline since as information technology became important. Nice story, but I wonder whether it can apply to more observations (i.e., countries). Also, I wonder whether the timing of events works out. Indeed, the ratio of of unskilled to skilled workers went into a tailspin starting in 1945, while union membership started decreasing only in 1955 and the income distribution started getting more skewed in the 1980's.
2 Haziran 2012 Cumartesi
1 Haziran 2012 Cuma
The value of human capital
How much is human capital worth? This is an important question when one this about the amount of resources that goes into education, both from public and private funds, as well as the substantial opportunity cost of attending school instead of working. The traditional approach is to compare the labor income of people with different levels of education and then come up with a return on investment or more often a return of one additional year of schooling.
Mark Huggett and Greg Kaplan take a different approach. They consider human capital to be an asset and decompose it into a bond (with fixed return), a stock (with variable return) and a residual. This becomes then a standard asset pricing problem. Then taking the labor income flow as a representation of the dividends from this portfolio, they can infer its composition, and how it changes over time. Using data for US males, it turns out the value of human capital is much lower than previously estimated. This is because the stochastic discount factor covaries negatively with earnings (they take into account capital income as well). Also, the bond component dominates the portfolio, especially for the college educated, which is not surprising given the large variance of income and employment among the less educated. What is more surprising, I think, is that stock market and human capital returns are not correlated. I would have thought that the business cycle would have had a strong impact there.
Mark Huggett and Greg Kaplan take a different approach. They consider human capital to be an asset and decompose it into a bond (with fixed return), a stock (with variable return) and a residual. This becomes then a standard asset pricing problem. Then taking the labor income flow as a representation of the dividends from this portfolio, they can infer its composition, and how it changes over time. Using data for US males, it turns out the value of human capital is much lower than previously estimated. This is because the stochastic discount factor covaries negatively with earnings (they take into account capital income as well). Also, the bond component dominates the portfolio, especially for the college educated, which is not surprising given the large variance of income and employment among the less educated. What is more surprising, I think, is that stock market and human capital returns are not correlated. I would have thought that the business cycle would have had a strong impact there.
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